It was funny, there I was telling people it was a new bull market, because we actually do the work around here, but investors weren't buying it.
In fact, we saw 44 consecutive weeks of more bears than bulls among individual investors. This was an even longer streak than we saw during the Financial crisis. Longer than COVID.
People were really angry.
You can see the AAII Bulls and Bears, along with their consecutive streaks plotted below:
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
I thought it was odd bonds didn't react to last week's rate hike. Regardless, the lack of volatility represents a positive development for risk assets, especially stocks.
I’ve been enjoying a (new to me) book recently. Today, I came across this passage that stopped me in my tracks:
Trading is a journey, not a destination. So you’re a trader. Now what? Trading is a constant process of intellectual and emotional growth, and people who trade for twenty years are still learning what to do and who to be when they finally hang it up.
Markets don’t always trend higher or lower. In fact, traders often deal with churn – which sometimes is nothing more than a range-bound mess.
"Sideways" is a trend that's all too easy to forget after last year’s historic volatility. Even bonds became risk assets in 2022!
I found it odd when bonds failed to react to last week’s rate hike along with other long-duration assets.
But the lack of bond market volatility might be exactly what risk assets, especially stocks, need right now.
Check out the chart of the US 10-year yield:
The US benchmark rate continues to hold above 3.40%. This has been our line in the sand for months, coinciding with the June pivot highs from last year.
As our Premium Members already know, we have a laundry list of scans that we run internally on an almost daily basis.
Different market environments, naturally, are more conducive to certain scans and less so to others.
We think our Freshly Squeezed scan is perfect for the current market. In fact, we wrote our initial report in December just to be sure we wouldn’t miss the moves that have taken place in recent weeks. We’re confident there is more to come.
With so many individual issues in massive drawdowns as the broader market begins to turn a corner, we’re witnessing some serious short-covering rallies in some of the most beaten-down names.
In fact, it’s already starting to happen. Bed, Bath & Beyond $BBBY was up by almost 100% the other day. It’s very likely they’re going bankrupt. But that’s just the kind of market we’re in.
