We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
Honestly, I was only half serious. I pay attention to the Fed and CPI data – mainly to stay aware of the increased volatility accompanying important release dates.
It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision across the currency markets, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
In the options market, summer flights priced in Boeing options are pretty cheap right now.
I think I'll be looking to take a flight to a fun European destination if I can get a bullish position in Boeing to pay for it. Maybe I'll even fly on a Boeing jet?
During our analyst meeting this morning, we kicked around a few bullish ideas, but it was this Boeing $BA chart that rose to the top:
We're going to get involved with a bullish options spread that gives us through the summer to most efficiently express this thesis.
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.
These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we've turned our attention to the future aristocrats.
In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we curate a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."
Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
The CPI data came in a little warmer than expected today. And currency markets aren’t quite sure what to make of it.
Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.
Today, I’ll outline another vehicle to short a potential falling dollar – the Swiss franc.
I prepared to get long the USD/CHF pair last October. But the trade never materialized. Instead, it caught lower as the USD downtrend picked up steam in early November.
Fast-forward a few months, and I’m ready to short the USD/CHF pair.
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
What will ignite a precious metal rally to new all-time highs?
We often discuss the dollar and real yields as critical catalysts for a sustained uptrend for gold and silver. It’s simple: These shiny rocks will struggle if the dollar and rates continue to rise.
But there’s more.
I want to share another crucial piece of the puzzle – commercial positioning.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
