Precious metals have been the big story lately as Silver crashes to 4-year lows and almost anything with the word “Gold” in it continues to struggle and underperform other equities. Today I want to take a look at the S&P500 compared to the Gold Miners since they are right near historic levels.
Here is a daily line chart showing the ratio between SPY and GDX since last summer. We are literally right at the all-time highs in this particular ratio (note: the ETF GDX has only existed since 2006):
A break of this key resistance would give us a measured move target up near 10.38 which is almost 16% from current levels. We’ve already broken the down trend line from last December’s highs in the ratio. But a breakout to new highs, which looks likely would be another bullish development.
I can see a scenario where we continue to consolidate up here and then break out, or even correct a little bit to the downside in order to properly acknowledge this former overhead supply. But a confirmed breakout here would be extremely constructive, and from where we stand today, the higher probability outcome.
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Tags: $GDX $GC_F $GLD $GDXJ $SPX $SPY $ES_F