Eight months of sideways consolidation and an upcoming earnings event next week are setting the table for the potential of significant upside in shares of Nvidia $NVDA.
The semiconductor space is a leading indicator for the technology sector which has been outperforming in both an absolute sense as well as relative to the rest of the stock market. We view $NVDA as a leader among semiconductor stocks and it is only natural that this name should resume it’s trek higher with the market, which we’re still incredibly bullish on.
We’re going to make a bet that next week’s earnings is the catalyst to get $NVDA moving again.
As discussed during our August All Star Options Monthly Conference Call, we’re playing for new all-time highs in shares of $NVDA above 269 and for an advance up to and through the psychological $300 magnet — affectionately referred to as the “three-hundred-dolla-roll.”
Since the upcoming earnings event is elevating options premiums, we’re going to place our bet with a bull call spread, buying the October 270 call and selling the October 300 call, which closed today at a net debit of $6.85. While we’d love to own naked calls outright, the premiums are simply making them a little too rich for my comfort, so selling the 300 call helps reduce our basis to play, while limiting our upside in exchange.
If earnings turns out to be a bust and $NVDA closes below $240, our trade is likely not going to work out and we’ll look to close it out and salvage whatever remaining premium is left in the spread (it won’t be much). The key is, our risk is defined to the debit we paid to enter the trade, so we’ll size our position accordingly in case the spread goes to zero.
If earnings does in fact kickstart a run to and through new highs, I’ll look to close this spread out for $18.50 or higher. Above this value for the spread, we’ll begin to risk significantly more than we have left to gain, and I won’t like playing that game. Take the profit and move on to the next trade.
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