It’s the 2023 inaugural weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
And we’re kicking it off with the US Dollar Index $DXY!
Check it out!
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Ian Culley
It’s the 2023 inaugural weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
And we’re kicking it off with the US Dollar Index $DXY!
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
I’m not big into seasonality.
I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price.
Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances awareness of any given market – which should be a priority for any trader or investor.
I have multiple almanacs on my desk, including the Stock Trader’s Almanac by Jeff Hirsch and Christopher Mistal and the Spectra Markets Trader Handbook and Almanac by Brent Donnelly and Justin Ross.
I recommend both.
Like most indicators, extreme seasonal tendencies provide the best information. And I can’t ignore the strong positive seasonality for the US dollar as it enters its best month of the year.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
What a year for currency markets!
The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity versus the US dollar for the first time in twenty years.
But where does that leave the King Dollar heading into Q1 2023 now that it has fallen almost 10% off its September peak and many global currencies have reclaimed key levels?
Let’s turn to the charts for some answers…
by Ian Culley
It’s the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
So far this week, the Japanese yen has stolen the show. But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?
Check it out!
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
What do you do when the party gets out of hand?
You raise the roof!
That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%.
Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar.
But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.
Unfortunately, some of our initial attempts to capitalize on dollar weakness have fallen flat.
We’re not surprised – especially since market conditions remain challenging. But that won’t deter us from moving forward and finding the best trade setups.
As always, a viable trade comes down to two critical components: a well-defined risk level and a risk/reward profile heavily skewed in our favor.
And, of course, you know how much we like relative strength.
That brings us to a vehicle that challenges the definition of “currency.”
That’s gold.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar Index $DXY is running into support at a shelf of former highs.
How it reacts will influence how stocks fare heading into the year-end.
Let’s check out three charts and three levels to monitor.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains.
But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event.
Don’t fall victim to what’s easy or comfortable. Instead, let’s focus on the facts.
Markets continue to send mixed signals, testing the resolve of even the most disciplined investor. Rather than fight the trend or trendless nature of the markets, I prefer to identify evidence that supports the next directional move.
And there’s one insightful chart atop my deck regarding the direction of the US dollar.