From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Price doesn’t move in a straight line.

Just don’t tell the US dollar, which has managed to post positive gains for 11 straight weeks. 

But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sporting its deepest drawdown since mid-July – a mere 0.2% – as buyers catch their breath.

Five down days and counting have my attention, though it doesn’t shift my bullish bias for King Dollar.

Not yet!

Check out last week’s DXY candle:

Buyers drove prices higher over the course of last week only to succumb to selling pressure by Friday’s close. 

The long upper shadow and small real body at the lower end of the range form a “northern doji” candlestick. It indicates the market is exhausted, explaining the continued selling pressure.

But it’s the first lower weekly close in 12 weeks. The DXY hasn’t gone on...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The most important chart in the world is back in action!

A rising US dollar is generating increased selling pressure for risk assets and global currencies.

US Treasury bonds, stock indexes, and even commodities are catching lower.

Yet it’s nothing new for the top components of the US Dollar Index $DXY (the euro leads at 57.6%, followed by the yen at 13.6% and the pound at 11.9%).

New lows and broken support have become standard for these currencies. 

But King Dollar’s command is spreading to the more resilient pockets of the forex market, as fresh breakouts mount.

Here’s the US dollar-Canadian dollar pair breaking above a key retracement level to six-month highs following a litany of missed attempts:

The failed breakdown during...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is reclaiming its throne.

The US Dollar Index $DXY hit a new year-to-date high on Monday, punishing other global currencies.

The euro undercut its June pivot lows. The pound dropped for the fourth consecutive session. And the yen is well within reach of its lowest level since the summer of 1990.   

Other major currencies don’t stand a chance against USD strength.

If you can’t beat them, join them!

The Swiss franc might be the next to succumb to this old proverb as it prepares to bend the knee.

Check out the US dollar-Swiss franc pair pulling back after posting a new eight-year low:

The price action following those eight-year lows mirrors the failed breakdown in the dollar index – sharply higher.

But the USD/CHF has reached a logical level to pause, marked by a polarity...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers beware! 

The US Dollar Index $DXY is kicking ass and taking names.

The dollar has ripped higher ever since the July failed breakdown.

It’s now challenging fresh six-month highs and a critical former resistance area. 

An upside resolution for King Dollar will undoubtedly pressure risk assets – not the ideal scenario for stock market bulls.

And the dollar rally has plenty of room to run if the DXY is a reliable indicator...

Check out the number of consecutive up-weeks in the lower pane of the US Dollar Index chart:

The DXY has finished in the green for nine consecutive weeks and counting, producing a bullish momentum thrust.

It hasn’t experienced a similar winning streak since the 2014-15...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Equities like a deadstick dollar.

But stocks can’t always get what they want – or “like.” 

A swift 5 percent gain in the US Dollar Index $DXY was not on the S&P 500’s wish list.

Yet that’s what the dollar served up following its mid-July failed breakdown. 

Unsurprisingly, stocks have struggled since, peaking less than two weeks after the dollar posted its year-to-date low.

The DXY is now challenging a critical overhead supply level as dollar bulls have once again lowered their horns.

But will they finally hook 'em by the end of the week?

We’ll know if the DXY decisively closes above 105.

That’s the level:

Meanwhile, investors and traders appear reluctant to relinquish the euro (the largest component of the US Dollar Index at 57.6% of the weighting). 

Perhaps US dollar bulls are making contact at the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

“Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” blared the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek less than a week after the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked last September.

Unbelievable timing.

We can’t make this stuff up!

While the DXY has undergone a significant correction since, the message is just as appropriate today as it was then.

The dollar can’t stop.

It’s ripping higher this morning, breaking to fresh six-month highs as it nears a key area of former resistance.

Those mounting breakouts and breakdowns favoring the USD from mid-August are sticking their moves. 

Have no fear, or "FOMO," if you missed any of those trades.

These next two dollar pairs offer well-defined entries using one of my favorite short-duration chart patterns…

The flag.

Before I outline the trade setups, here’s a quick reminder of what constitutes a flag or pennant (triangular version), according to Robert D. Edwards and John Magee’s classic...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is bouncing around as we approach Labor Day.

Last week’s strength is evaporating.

Meanwhile, global currencies claw back recent losses as cryptocurrencies and gold’s crazy cousin, silver, enjoy a much-needed boost.

It’s no secret that risk assets like a weaker dollar! 

But let’s put the current action into perspective before we get ahead of ourselves.

Remember, a single session doesn’t constitute a trend.

But it could mark a critical turning point…

The US Dollar Index $DXY violated a year-to-date downtrend line last week, breaking above its June pivot high:

And it did so while posting its first overbought reading (14-day RSI above 70) since its peak last fall.

That’s an impressive feat and a clear point for dollar bulls! 

Yet I can’t ignore the oversold momentum reading (14-day RSI below 30) that accompanied last month’s failed...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar sits atop the heap.

Major global currencies, including the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Singapore dollar, are limping lower against the greenback.

The long list could grow in coming sessions as momentum builds behind a sustained USD advance.

While the evidence suggests we lean in that direction, I always prepare to take the other side of a trade if and when the data changes.

So, what’s the best way to play a falling dollar?

Before I share my favorite trade setup, let’s look at the US Dollar Index $DXY: 

DXY is finding resistance at the July pivot highs and a downtrend line originating with the March peak.

It makes sense for the dollar advance to pause at this level. And it has.

If DXY absorbs the overhead supply and rips above 1.0350...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

When it rains, it pours.

Markets chop sideways most of the time. This has been the reality for forex markets for much of the year.

But that’s starting to change as numerous US dollar pairs reach new 10-month highs. The dollar is taking down crucial levels while the US Dollar Index $DXY retests a year-to-date downtrend line and key former highs.

The peculiar coincidence sets up some potentially critical resolutions for these USD pairs.

If they fail, the dollar rally is likely over. 

If they hold and additional USD breakouts materialize, selling pressure will intensify for many risk assets.

As of today, quite a few forex pairs are on the verge of supporting a sustained US dollar rally…

Let’s start with the second largest component of the DXY (13.6%), the US dollar-Japanese yen:

The USD/JPY is completing a six-week base as it breaks to its highest level since November.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is the most important chart in the world, again.

But, honestly, when is it not?

There’s no hiding from King Dollar.

It’s true: Currencies are not considered one of the three major asset classes (bonds, stocks, and commodities).

Nevertheless, fluctuations in the US dollar impact every asset worldwide – especially stocks and commodities. 

And the probability of renewed headwinds for risk assets is increasing as the failed breakdown in the dollar could have legs…

Check out the triple-pane chart of the DXY, our G-10 currency index, and the US dollar advance-decline line:

Our US dollar A-D line went from failing to confirm the DXY breakdown last month to posting new multi-year highs this week.

To be clear, the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Time seems to move faster during bull markets.

I have my theories, and they all revolve around having fun.

One thing is certain: The month of July is now behind us. 

I can’t believe we’re more than halfway through the year and a month into Q3!

Since it’s August 1, let’s keep the good time rolling by reviewing the most important monthly chart in the deck…

It's the US Dollar Index $DXY.

The US dollar acted as a Chief Headwind for Global Risk Assets last year, with a little help from the Fed.

All eyes are fixated on King Dollar as it straddles an area of former-resistance-turned-support:

DXY broke down to fresh 52-week lows last month, only to almost immediately turn higher. The long lower shadow on the monthly candle highlights the reversal, indicating an...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar isn’t going down without a fight.

Investors weren’t given much time to celebrate the breakdown as it quickly turned into a potential failed breakdown. 

Before we get ahead of ourselves, it could simply turn into a hard retest.

It happens all the time.

So let’s check the charts…

The US Dollar Index $DXY is trading back above a critical shelf of former lows:

As long as it’s above that level – let’s call it 101 – the odds of a failed move increase.

On the other hand, price could chop sideways for longer than anyone cares to believe.

It’s a real possibility, especially when zooming out on the daily chart:

...