From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US dollar bulls are in control. 

Fresh highs dot the US Dollar Index $DXY chart. Sellers are nowhere to be found.

The question is, when – or where – will buying pressure ease?

If I had to guess (which I do), I’d focus on 104.25:

A key retracement level and former resistance zone mark my spot.

Plus, price has respected that retracement over the past six months, adding to my conviction.

How long sellers will defend 104.25  – if price even reaches it – is anyone's guess.

I don’t have a Magic 8-Ball. (Wait, actually I do, and it says, “Ask again later.”)

Nevertheless, I imagine sellers step in at those former highs. If they don’t…

Global equities will continue to feel the squeeze. This includes metal and...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Market participants are searching for a new narrative. 

Their uncertainty-fueled meandering is breeding US dollar strength. 

Will the Fed cut, or will they simply do nothing at the March meeting?

No one knows. 

But risk-on currencies have halted their recent advance. And luckily, we have price to light our way…

Check out the New Zealand dollar-US dollar pair (NZD/USD):

The New Zealand dollar is considered a “risk-on” currency as it tends to follow risk assets (global equities and commodities). Notice the NZD/USD rallied into the holidays off its October lows, much like US stocks. That’s not a coincidence.

But last month’s strength has quickly turned into this month’s weakness.

No wonder NZD/USD is sliding below a critical...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s a new year with unlimited possibilities!

Even ol’ King Dollar is turning the page, embracing 2024 and everything it offers with open arms. It’s shaken off the selling pressure from 2023 and appears ready to turn over a new leaf. 

But a bigger dollar rally might need a little help from a nearby friend. 

More on this idea in a second. 

First, let’s check out the US Dollar Index $DXY chart…

The DXY is finding its footing following a brutal holiday season (dropping nearly 5 percent since November 17):

The DXY stopped catching lower right where we would expect: a shelf of former lows at approximately 101.

A period of US dollar strength would make sense as the DXY mean reverts higher, especially as it enters its most favorable month of the year.

Dollar strength likely means...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Y’all know the drill… 

Dollar down, stocks up.

That dominant inverse relationship remains firm as stocks rip and the dollar dips. 

The market’s message is clear: Buy stocks, sell dollars.

If you trade the FX markets, I have two new setups to ride the falling dollar…

First up, the US dollar-Swiss franc pair USD/CHF:

I’ve been tracking a generational topping formation in the USD/CHF (bottoming formation in the Swiss franc futures) for most of this year.

It wanted to break down in July but lacked follow-through.

Today, the USD/CHF is printing fresh 8-year lows, flashing another sell signal.

I’m short the USD/CHF below .8575 with an initial objective of .8125.

Next, the US dollar-Swedish krona pair USD/SEK:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If it wasn't at the very top of the list, the Japanese yen was certainly among the best shorts of 2022.

But the times they are a-changin’.

King Dollar has ducked down a dark alley.

And it doesn't take a weatherman to tell us to buy the yen.

Here are Japanese yen futures carving out a year-long base following fresh 30-year lows:

I like buying strength on a breakout of this bottoming formation. But the yen has quite a way to travel before completing this possible double bottom. 

I don’t want to miss those potential gains, so let’s get tactical by taking a closer look… 

Check out the daily chart with a Fibonacci retracement framing the 2023 decline:

I’m long Japanese yen futures against 0.7075 (the 38....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bing Crosby dreamed of a White Christmas.

Who hasn’t?

Growing up, I wished for a white Christmas every year. I knew snow was a stretch living in Florida. But a kid can dream… 

This season, stock market bulls hope for quite a different, serene vision: a weaker dollar.

Based on the charts, they might just get their wish.

Check out the updated US Dollar Index $DXY chart:

DXY has respected key retracement levels on the way up and down over the past six months. The repeated touches add to my conviction in these levels.

Today’s breakdown below 102.54 suggests further weakness toward the year-to-date lows. A fall to those former lows would undoubtedly stir tailwinds for global equities, producing joy and cheer among investors worldwide.

The 102 area also carries...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fiat money worldwide is sidelining the dollar.

Emerging market currencies were the first to strike. Now, their developed market counterparts have joined the fray.

The result: Global equities and precious metals are catching a bid.

After a challenging second half, perhaps the year's final weeks will be a layup for stock and forex traders.

And with the Australian and New Zealand dollars completing tactical reversals against the USD, the Canadian dollar could be next…

Check out Canadian dollar futures bouncing off support:

Buyers continue to defend the 0.72 level as ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar has gone from slinging cheese to lobbing cookies.

Sellers finally got ahold of the US Dollar Index $DXY on Tuesday, sending it on its steepest single-day decline since October 2022.

Recall what followed for the dollar…

The DXY formed a major top and fell victim to not one but two subsequent 1 percent-plus daily drawdowns. 

Check out the DXY chart with the one-day rate-of-change in the upper pane:

The DXY dropped almost 1.5% during Tuesday's session. That’s a huge move for a currency (with the exception of the Turkish lira and perhaps the Polish zloty).

Based on the action witnessed last fall, it wouldn’t be surprising for the DXY to experience a reprieve from selling pressure in the coming days, followed by renewed downside action. 

As I mentioned last week, “If and when it (the DXY) falls below...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is still dealing like an old-school ace on the mound.

I don’t care what stock market bulls or technology investors want to believe.

The buck has been lights out since July.

And just because it found itself in a bit of trouble last week doesn’t mean it can’t retire the side…

The index pulled back to a key retracement level at approximately 105 on Friday:

Unsurprisingly, the dollar bore down at this critical area as it coincides with a logical support zone. 

But, when we take a closer look… 

Sellers are digging in, seeing the spin on the ball, with runners in scoring position.

Check out last week’s breakdown:

The DXY undercut the January and March pivot highs from earlier this...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on the Japanese benchmark yield.

And the dollar, the euro, and the pound are ripping to fresh highs versus the yen.

Yes, the USD/JPY is off to the races – again.

But where can we define the next logical upside objectives?

Let’s dive in…

Before tackling our targets for the dollar-yen pair, check out the Japanese 10-year yield:

The BoJ’s yield curve control policy has, in large part, capped the USD/JPY rate as traders and policymakers play a game of chicken. Traders drive the dollar-yen pair higher, challenging the Japanese central bank's hold on interest rates.

Meanwhile, the BoJ steps in with policy decisions supportive of the yen.   

Market participants were expecting the move from the BoJ today – which it did by loosening its grip to 1.00% as an upper bound for the 10-year yield.

But it wasn’t enough in the eyes of the market as the EUR...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Economists, columnists, and pundits are calling for an economic recession and even the possibility of deflation. 

Yet the US dollar is consolidating above a critical support zone.

Nothing bearish about that!

In fact, it’s standard price behavior within an ongoing uptrend. 

Sure, the pundits might be right. But both scenarios involve a swift decline in the US dollar.

And that’s simply not what’s happening today.   

In fact, forex markets are providing new opportunities to buy US dollars and sell other major currencies…

Check out the EUR/USD pair pulling back to a logical resistance level:

If you missed selling the breakdown in September, the market is giving you another shot.

The EUR/USD is...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is chopping smack-dab in the middle of a three-week range.

Currency markets are quiet. The euro, the pound, and the yen have all dialed back the volatility.

But there’s nothing wrong with the sideways action.

And in no way does it diminish the underlying uptrend for the dollar. 

In fact, the near-term trendless range makes sense in light of DXY’s recent run and the long-term support levels in play for major currencies.

Check out the DXY with the number of consecutive up weeks in the lower pane: 

Eleven weeks in a row! The index climbed higher for almost three straight months. 

A period of consolidation not only makes sense but politely adheres to the law of gravity.

Sorry, but price doesn’t move in a straight line – even for the dollar index.

...