From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a year for currency markets!

The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity versus the US dollar for the first time in twenty years.

But where does that leave the King Dollar heading into Q1 2023 now that it has fallen almost 10% off its September peak and many global currencies have reclaimed key levels?

Let’s turn to the charts for some answers…

First, take a look at the US dollar index $DXY:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What do you do when the party gets out of hand?

You raise the roof!

That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%. 

Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar. 

But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.

Unfortunately, some of our initial attempts to capitalize on dollar weakness have fallen flat. 

We’re not surprised – especially since market conditions remain challenging. But that won’t deter us from moving forward and finding the best trade setups.

As always, a viable trade comes down to two critical components: a well-defined risk level and a risk/reward profile heavily skewed in our favor.

And, of course, you know how much we like relative strength. 

That brings us to a vehicle that challenges the definition of "currency." 

That's gold.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar Index $DXY is running into support at a shelf of former highs. 

How it reacts will influence how stocks fare heading into the year-end.

Let’s check out three charts and three levels to monitor.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to what’s easy or comfortable. Instead, let’s focus on the facts.

Markets continue to send mixed signals, testing the resolve of even the most disciplined investor. Rather than fight the trend or trendless nature of the markets, I prefer to identify evidence that supports the next directional move.

And there’s one insightful chart atop my deck regarding the direction of the US dollar.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish. 

Our first shot at betting on a weaker dollar was successful, as the EUR/USD hit its target earlier in the month. That’s encouraging!

But it’s important to note most dollar pairs are running into logical levels of support or resistance.

Many of these charts are messy at best.

Except the Mexican peso.

In fact, no currency has stood its ground during the dollar's parabolic advance like MXN.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar experienced significant volatility last week, posting its largest single-day loss since 2015.

As far as we’re concerned, the dollar is done. The weight of the evidence strongly suggests its best days are behind it. But that doesn’t mean it’s straight down from here for the US Dollar Index $DXY.

Instead, we expect plenty more volatility in the coming weeks and months. And when we look beneath the surface of the DXY, we’re at a logical level for the dollar to catch a breather.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

For weeks, I’ve been itching to call a top in the US Dollar Index $DXY.

Sentiment, volatility, and momentum thrusts have all suggested an end to the US dollar wrecking ball. But price hasn’t indicated any significant weakness in the structural trend.

The absence of confirming price action has made it impossible to take a bearish USD stance.

But that’s finally starting to change!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar has stopped going up!

In fact, it’s already registered a slightly lower high and lower low this past month. 

But we can’t call a top in the US dollar yet. While it came close to officially triggering a top last week, the lack of follow-through kept us in our seats.

With fresh monthly candles in the books, let’s review longer-term charts and reiterate key levels for ol’ King Dollar.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar is dropping!

It’s finally time to bet on some sustained downside action, and the euro is my vehicle of choice.

I laid out the conditions that would flip my outlook on the euro earlier this month. Three weeks later, the pieces have fallen into place for a bullish position.

Let’s take a look.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I don’t care what your favorite TikTok financial guru says: Trading isn’t easy.

The market has made this point again and again this year.

The market has also driven home another essential truth: Trends persist.

I talk about this approach quite a bit because I’m a trend-follower. It’s my favorite Dow Theory Tenet, and it's the foundation of my approach to the markets.

Trend-following might sound simple. But it’s far from effortless. Like any worthwhile philosophy, real-world applications can sometimes be a struggle. 

In fact, no other market has tested my trend-following resolve quite like this year’s unstoppable dollar. And I’m still looking for opportunities to get long…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One of the most valuable tactics I’ve learned in my career is the ability to capture a strong trend as it’s trending. 

I’m not talking about FOMO buying or blindly chasing breakouts.

In my experience, buying strong trends requires patience and discipline. 

Today, exercising these two key traits is especially necessary if you're trading the explosive US dollar. 

Navigating the latter stages of the dollar rally presents challenges, particularly in dealing with heightened volatility. However, it doesn’t mean we can’t join in on this trend responsibly as it barrels down the tracks... or, in this case, up them.