The world's important stock market index just made new all-time highs, again.
We don't know what the market is going to do next. No one does.
But here's what we do know.
Going back and looking at all the data since the beginning of time, we know FOR A FACT, that there is nothing more bullish for a stock than the price going up.
We know.
We have the data.
So do you!
But have you gone back and actually taken the time to count?
The most bullish thing a stock can do is go up in price.
Here is the Dow making new all-time highs (in price), after breaking out earlier this year from a multi-year bear market.
People keep looking for bear markets that aren't there.
We just had a bear market a couple of years ago.
And we had another one a couple of years before that.
If we're going into a new bear market, you're going to need stocks to go down in price first, or at the very least they need to stop going up.
We know mathematically that you CANNOT have a bear market, or a correction of any kind without the prices of stocks falling. (See: ...
If I learn something from someone and I quote it, I always do my best to also mention who I learned that from.
When someone on my team makes a good call, or builds something really valuable, I'm the first one who stands up to give them credit for it.
But this one is mine. I'll take the credit for this list.
Here's the thing though. While I did think building this would be a good idea, it has exceeded expectations across the board.
I may have made a good call. But I'm still a dummy for not realizing just how valuable this would end up being for us.
The market is humbling that way.
Without any further ado, let me present you with the All Star Charts Hall of Famers.
These are the largest 150 companies in America by market-cap. These are the stocks that are driving returns. These are the names that need to do well if you want your favorite indexes to do well too,
You guys know how much I appreciate the value we get from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
But there are other names that are arguably just as important, or in many cases even...
We just got done with our Fall Portfolio Accelerator in Chicago.
It went even better than expected.
I think we're going to make so much money from the ideas and strategies we discussed over the past two days.
It's not even fair to have so many smart traders and investors in one room. Not to mention, we also got to go to the Cubs game last night, the CBOT on Wednesday and a tour of the Pat Tillman Foundation as well.
All around I think it was a huge win for all of us. Our entire team got to fly in from all over the world to spend some time in Chicago, many of them for the first time.
We had some special guest rock stars come by to drop some...
The S&P500 just made new all-time highs again today. But so did the Mid-caps.
Here is the S&P400 Mid-cap Index, which by definition includes only stocks that are NOT in the S&P500, hitting new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the S&P600 Small-cap Index, is only 0.4% from a new 52-week high and only 2.5% from a new All-time high, which would finally get it to exceed its 2021 cycle peak.
It's a bull market.
And so we're acting accordingly.
We're in Chicago for our 2-day Portfolio Accelerator and this was one of the important topics of discussion that we covered in Day 1.
But not because I have to. It's because I want to.
There's a difference.
But I'm taking a break out here in Newport Beach, Ca for a few days, at what has become, the #1 Conference in all of Finance.
It's not even close.
I couldn't tell you what the 2nd best was. That's how dominant this is.
Sunday afternoon I walked up to the booth in Huntington Beach to get my badge and bag of goodies and they had pins representing whether it was your 1st year at FuturePtoof, your 2nd year attending or if it was your 3rd.
I smiled and said, "This is my 3rd year here", and she jumped up with joy and put extra flair on my conference name badge.
I feel like Jennifer Aniston in Office Space with all my flair on right now.
I laugh because of course it's my 3rd year. I want to support my friends.
Even if there was no one here, I would still be here.
But do you know how happy it makes me to see my boys kicking everyone's ass?
Josh Brown and the rest of the Ritholtz Wealth Management team is absolutely crushing it.
I'm out in Newport Beach, CA for a few days hanging out at an industry conference called Future Proof.
I don't even know where to start with these guys.
I've had a front row seat to watch my good friend Josh Brown partner up with Barry Ritholtz, hire Michael Batnick and many others along the way, and turn a small advisory into a $5 Billion AUM firm - one of the fastest growing Financial Advisors in the United States.
It was awesome when they were first coming up and putting on conferences. They were big, but still small and intimate in their own ways.
Now they're just way too successful.
That band that was cool when just a few people knew about them has gone mainstream.
There are way too many people here. It's absolutely insane.
My friends are rockstars. And I couldn't be happier to see all of their success.
I say there are too many people at this conference as a joke. But I'm not even kidding. There were like 20 open bars at happy hour last night and I still couldn't get a drink.
It was nuts.
And today is actually the first full day.
I've already run into a bunch of old pals, who many in their...
I'll be Streaming LIVE TODAY at 4 p.m. ET to talk about what that 20% correction in Semiconductors means for this market, where that money is going next, why markets are usually volatile ahead of November’s election, and what exactly we’re doing to profit from it all.
The A.I. story has come and gone and the recession that they've been telling us about all these years is finally here?
So this is a major top in Nvidia - ending the whole damn thing?
That's your bet?
And this massive top in Microsoft is exactly that - a historic top? One for the record books?
So the largest company on the planet is about to complete this 8 months of institutional distribution and is about to bring down the entire Technology sector?
Keep in mind that Nvidia and Microsoft combine for over 41% of the S&P Technology Index. (Apple is only 5% of Tech now)
Here's what I'm being told is the end for Microsoft...
Is that the bet you're making?
This is the end of the bull market?
Because I see Consumer Discretionary as the leading sector over the past month. Look at those returns, all outperforming the major averages by a long shot:
And another thing.
You know how we've been pointing out that High Beta has severely underperformed Low Volatility?
Did you hear about the massive top in Semiconductors?
Everyone is talking about it on the internets. So it must be true.
Seems the easy call here to make is to say "that was it". The Semiconductor story and the bull market as we know it is over...'
One of the things they teach you in the first week of Technical Analysis kindergarten is that infamous Head & Shoulders top.
The reason this is so popular is because it is "easy" to recognize. You have a left "shoulder", followed by a higher high (head), and completed with a lower high, forming the "right shoulder".
Once the "neckline", represented by these gray shaded lines above, gets broken, the whole house of cards collapses.
Or so we're taught.
But here's the thing.
Asset prices trend. Massive topping formations are much more rare.
In most cases, particularly during bull markets, these sorts of formations tend to resolve higher, and these "massive tops" are just figments of traders' imaginations.
This could very well be a historic top and selling opportunity in Semiconductors.