The only real safe haven out there continues to be the US Dollar.
That's it.
When money flows into the Dollar, stocks are under pressure. You may not always see it at the index level, but you can certainly see it when you count and go one by one across the stock market.
The US Dollar bottomed on December 27th. That was also the day that the Advance-Decline line on the NYSE put in its top. It was also the day that the Russell2000 Small-cap Index peaked.
We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. ASC Premium Members can click here to watch the replay and download the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
Last week, we held our January Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Will the Fed cut, or will they simply do nothing at the March meeting?
No one knows.
But risk-on currencies have halted their recent advance. And luckily, we have price to light our way…
Check out the New Zealand dollar-US dollar pair (NZD/USD):
The New Zealand dollar is considered a “risk-on” currency as it tends to follow risk assets (global equities and commodities). Notice the NZD/USD rallied into the holidays off its October lows, much like US stocks. That’s not a coincidence.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.