I get it. The yen was cast as the villain decades ago, and something or someone must take the blame for the VIX hitting 65 earlier this week.
While I prefer to point my finger at the preceding low-volatility environment, the November election, and potential rate cuts, the yen certainly played a part.
But the real question isn’t who, what, when, where, or why.
Instead, every investor wants to know…Was that it?
Is the selloff over?
I think the worst is behind us.
Here’s why…
Check out the USD/JPY chart with a 200-day simple moving average in bright blue (with the percentage above or below the long-term average in the lower pane):
In many ways the yen carry trade is a play on interest rates.
Remember when anything priced in yen was trending higher?
It wasn’t too long ago that if you were looking for an uptrend, all you had to do was throw the yen in the denominator, and voila.
Just last month, the dollar hit a new 34-year high against the yen—levels not seen since the 1980s.
But the tables are turning in favor of the Japanese currency.
While most central banks are either cutting interest rates or considering future rate cuts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is hiking—a policy shift that puts a bid beneath the yen…
You may not like it. I know I certainly don't. But that's the world we've always lived in. And it's the world I would expect us to be in for a long long time.
The bond market is $130 Trillion. That's compared to a mere $50 Trillion US Stock Market. The total Global stock market is slightly over $100 Trillion, for perspective.