The greenback doesn’t know which way to go, as FX markets offer traders little in the way of breakouts.
Instead of reviewing the chopfest, playing devil’s advocate, and weighing the lack of evidence for a near-term directional bias, let’s turn to a trending market for insight into the dollar.
Spoiler alert: It’s shiny, yellow, and trading at new all-time highs.
Yes, I’m referring to Gold.
Gold and the US dollar hold a classic intermarket relationship — an overt negative correlation.
As I reviewed the charts this weekend, another pattern emerged between the two.
I decided to offset Gold ahead of the dollar by roughly two to four years. After adjusting the charts, I landed on setting Gold forward by 130 weeks (approximately two-and-a-half years).
Bitcoin is screaming its way back to the former all-time highs. Crude is printing multi-month highs. Even gold is breaking out to new all-time highs after going nowhere for years.
The new all-time highs in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 earlier this month have been well documented.
What they don't tell you is that the equally-weighted versions of those market-cap weighted indexes are just now getting back to their late 2021 highs.
They never even broke out. In fact, they're finally just getting back to where they started.