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[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

May 3, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

China Dictates The Direction Of Many Diversified World Indexes

On a global scale, recent weakness has primarily been isolated to the Asia-Pacfic region. This region has in large part been weighed down by the Large-Cap Growth-heavy Chinese market; while many indices have decisively accelerated to the upside in recent months, China is still painfully below its YTD highs.

From our perspective, given the economic significance of China, we need to see buyers defend this key 45 level in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. In this sense, the resolution from this level will likely dictate the bias for global markets in the coming weeks and months.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

April 26, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

The Growth Vs Value Cheat Code

We’ve pounded the table about that 1.70 level being the line in the sand for the relative trend in Growth vs Value. If we’re below there - which we believe we’re likely to remain, then we want to continue to be overweight Value and cyclicals. If the ratio decisively reclaims this level then we’ll have to rethink our entire thesis, along with that of a new Commodities Supercycle. But, that’s not the bet we’re making at all.

The chart below shows Growth vs Value (IWF/IWD) overlaid with Tech vs Financials (XLK/XLF) as these are the main drivers of the two factors. We believe there is incredible information in the Tech vs Financials ratio. It was tested, and successfully defended in both April and June of last year, as well as again in early March of this year. Clearly, this area is a battleground for this relative ratio… And...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

April 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Bifurcation Looms In The Currency Complex

As the US Dollar has caught a bid in recent weeks, our custom equal-weight index of the G-10 currencies is finding resistance at a perfectly logical level. We’re receiving bifurcated signals from the currency complex all-in-all, as many risk-on currencies are approaching key inflection points. In saying this, the currencies that have held up the best during the Dollar’s recent bout in strength have been those more closely tied with commodity-rich economies. This adds credence to our global growth and Commodity Supercycle thesis.   

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

March 19, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

How Dangerous Are These Divergences?

Let’s play a little devil’s advocate. Do you know what a common characteristic of market tops is? Failed breakouts. We see them everywhere at significant peaks - just look back to February of last year, there were plenty of textbook examples. The Russell 2000 just printed a failed breakout and confirmed a bearish momentum divergence as price sliced below its February highs. Making matters worse, RSI couldn’t even register an overbought reading with the most recent highs.

So, how serious is this? While anything can happen and this could certainly be the beginning of a significant selloff, that’s not what the broader evidence suggests. This is likely a garden variety correction at worst. And after the recent...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

March 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

1. Dow Averages Take The Driver Seat

At the index level, the Large-Cap Growth-heavy Nasdaq has felt the burden of the last month’s selling pressure. In fact, all other major indices in the US have generated positive returns over the last month. The Nasdaq is the one negative standout. It’s not that we’re seeing money flow out of stocks. Instead, we’re seeing money rotate between stocks.

We shared this chart and observation in our RPP Report earlier this week. Dow Transports and Dow Industrials were barely impacted by the recent volatility, and both have gone on to make new all-time highs since. This has everything to do with the composition of these indexes. The Dow Industrial Average has a lot more Financials compared to the Nasdaq, and half the exposure to Technology. Transports are an even...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

March 4, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza.

Our Top 10 report was just published; our weekly report highlighting the best 10 ideas and respective charts we are seeing across the markets this week.

1. No More Divergences For The Dow

There had been a classic “Dow Theory” divergence in place for several years, dating back to when the Dow Transportation Average peaked in 2018. This cleared itself up late last year when Transports actually beat Dow Industrials back to new all-time highs. They’ve continued to lead in the time since. What really matters though is that both continue to grind higher, confirming one anothers new highs along the way. We often talk about Modern or 21st Century “Dow Theory,” which uses the Semiconductor Index in place of Transports. This is because a strong argument can be made that semis are the new drivers of what is now a mainly services-based economy in the US (and abroad). While Transports continue to trade more or less at record highs, Semiconductors haven’t made a new high in over two...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

February 26, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza.

Our Top 10 report was just published; our weekly report highlighting the best 10 ideas and respective charts we are seeing across the markets this week.

1. Weakening Internals In The World’s Top Index

We’ve been vocal about the strong internals supporting US Equity markets and have pounded the table on one historic breadth reading after the next as they’ve continued to pop up in a variety of the major indexes and sectors since last summer. Surprisingly enough, one of the indexes that did NOT experience bullish initiation thrusts was the Nasdaq 100. This is likely because of the fact the bar was already set so high for this index due to its strong performance in years past. Regardless of the reason, unlike indexes that did experience thrusts, we’re paying attention to divergences in many of the Nasdaq’s breadth indicators. There’s been a notable deterioration in participation beneath the surface in what’s been the world’s strongest stock index for years. With the index finally showing some weakness and appearing to cede its leadership role to some of the more...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

February 18, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza 

Our Top 10 report was just published; our weekly report highlighting the best 10 ideas and respective charts we are seeing across the markets this week. One idea and chart that really has our attention is Emerging Markets overlaid with The CRB Index.

Emerging Markets hit new all-time highs last week. This is supportive of the bullish action we’re seeing from stocks in other regions of the globe as well as economically-sensitive commodities. It is no coincidence that the Emerging Markets ETF $EEM and the CRB index tend to peak and trough in unison throughout history. They relay a similar message of “risk-on.” The big question now is whether it’s time for Commodities to play catch-up with Emerging Markets.