Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Mixed Signals From Modern Dow Theory
This week’s new highs for the major averages lacked confirmation from their peer indices once again. A topic we often discuss is "Modern Dow Theory." That is, instead of solely evaluating Transports and Industrials for a reading on the broader market, we should also consider the performance of Semiconductors as they’ve become the modern medium for economic transportation.
Despite the Dow Industrials ripping back to close this volatile week out at fresh highs, we’re still not seeing any confirmation from either of these critical indexes. And when we look at the Transportation Average, there is reason for concern as we’ve seen nothing but steady weakness since prices peaked in early May. As for semis, they continue to hold their own but remain trapped in a holding pattern beneath their April highs.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
From Failed Moves Come Fast Moves
Markets have been unequivocally choppy. Breakouts are failing, new highs are dwindling, and it’s becoming more challenging to find trending opportunities. Last week, we discussed how Semiconductors failed to breakout, and asked whether its peer industries would follow suit. Well, we have our answer now… One of the strongest industry groups in the last two months, Internet, just printed a failed breakout at its February highs. Software looks frighteningly similar.
Digging into some of the components, Amazon, the largest weighting of the group, is in the process of retesting its September 2020 highs of 3550. And to compare the industry group to one of its peers, Semiconductors have also put in a failed breakout.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Global Yields Threaten European Equities
Last week we discussed the underperformance of European banks and the potential implications in the near term for risk-taking behavior.
This week, these suspicions were confirmed when price fell back below a key level, confirming a failed breakout. Similarly, the MSCI United Kingdom ETF, one of the most important economies within Europe, was unable to break above a significant resistance level around 34. Now, both are trapped below overhead supply.
If European financials and UK stocks are trapped below their pre-covid highs, it’s consistent with an environment where markets remain messier for longer and risk assets are vulnerable.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Base Metals Bury The Hatchet
Dr. Copper often steals the spotlight when it comes to base metals, and for good reason. It’s one of the most economically sensitive commodities. More importantly, it holds a special place in our collective psyche, as one of the major assets that investors turn to in order to gauge the state of the economy, and even investor risk appetite. With that said, the current correction in Copper has raised some concern, especially given the choppy market conditions.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Energy Futures Turn On The Heat
Crude Oil broke above resistance at its 2019 highs back in June and has been grinding higher ever since despite its energy-related peers remaining beneath their corresponding resistance levels. That changed this week as Heating Oil and Gasoline finally broke out to new multi-year highs. The recent strength from this group comes as base metals continue to correct through time and price. This kind of rotation within the commodities complex is constructive, especially after such a strong run-up off last year’s lows. We think Energy is offering some excellent risk/reward opportunities right now as we’re not only seeing other commodities contracts confirm the price action in Crude, but Energy stocks are also breaking out to new highs (see Chart #5).
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Using Caterpillar And Copper As A Risk Barometer
On the topic of high-beta names, here’s a behemoth from the Industrial sector. We think of Caterpillar as an index in and of itself - a barometer for global economic growth, reflation, cyclicality, etc. It’s all reflected in CATs stock price, as it is highly correlated with risk assets such as Copper and Emerging Markets. The stock recently made its first lower low in over a year, suggesting we continue to approach these offensive areas with caution. We’ll be watching to see if Copper, and others... even risk-on forex pairs like the Aussie/Yen, will continue to follow Caterpillar’s path. How much structural damage is endured before we get a tradeable bottom in these assets will provide us valuable insight regarding the future market environment for risk-taking.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Outlook For Yields Turns Lower
Despite a historic CPI print, yields are unanimously pointing lower, including other vital metrics from different asset classes. Both the Copper/Gold and Regional Bank/REIT ratios have been pointing down for some time, and the all-important High Yield/Treasury Bond spread is shifting to a more bearish tilt for risk assets. It’s pretty clear right now that either the Bond market disagrees that long-term inflation is here to stick around or disagrees with the stock and commodity market on how it’ll affect.
This is where a lot of our mixed signals are coming from right now. Risk assets and commodities, particularly Crude Oil, are pointing to further upside for risk, while the Bond market is beginning to raise some alarm bells. And if we know anything about the Bond market, we consider it smart money. Watch this space...
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Momentum Rebalance Heavy On Financials
One of the big lessons investors have been taught this year is that Growth is not Momentum. For many years, Growth-oriented sectors held the reigns of Momentum strategies. But that's not because the two are synonymous in any fundamental way. It's simply because growth stocks have been where the momentum is. In other words, they've been going up!
Well, that's changing and this is yet another data point that supports this view. After MSCI’s semi-annual rebalance of the Momentum Factor ETF $MTUM, Technology has shrunk from a 41% to 18% weighting, while Financials’ weighting has shot up from a measly 2% to 32%. Moreover, both Consumer Discretionary and Communications have shrunk in their weighting, while the other Value sectors - Industrials, Materials, and Energy - now represent a far more significant portion of the ETF.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
A Big Retest For Small Caps
Since the March lows last year, SMIDs have been the clear leadership group with higher yields as a tailwind. However, this entire relative theme has cooled off as risk assets have consolidated along with interest rates. Considering last year’s major breakdown in Small-Caps relative to Large-Caps signaled lower rates, this is a critical time and place to witness a resolution either way.
From an intermarket perspective, we’ve seen our crucial stock and commodity ratios signal lower rates in the near future. Is this signaling a relative breakdown in Small-Caps? As always with markets, we need to play the cards we’re dealt. So while the longer-term outlook favors higher yields, we’re paying close attention to this resolution to signal a more immediate directional bias for these relative themes.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Europe Stands Strong On The Global Stage
European equities are in the process of staging a reversal relative to global equities after forming a formidable base. If this ratio of the FTSE Europe ETF can decisively move above this downward sloping 7-year trendline, this would confirm the beginning phases of a new structural uptrend for a region that has acted as a perennial laggard in a Growth dominated environment.
Now that we’re finally witnessing rotation into Value areas like Financials and Natural Resources, Europe no longer is being anchored down by its constituents. That exposure is swiftly becoming a powerful tailwind.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Will Bonds Follow The Path Of Bullion
A few weeks ago, we put out what you could call a “lower conviction” trade idea in Gold Miners. The reason we did this was simple and boiled down to two things: 1. The risk/reward profile; and 2. The primary trend. The prior was simply too good to ignore as price tested a formidable level of former resistance turned support. And this was taking place within the context of an underlying uptrend. Fast forward to today, and that trade has worked out beautifully (see lower pane).
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Smalls Signal An End To The Growth/Value Countertrend
One of the main themes we’ve seen unfold as the market has rallied off its recovery lows from last year is the rotation into value stocks and more cyclical areas of equity markets. We’re seeing it around the world too, and it’s also responsible for driving many other relative trends like that between small and large-caps and US vs ex-US equities.
