Here's the video from a live interview I did on ET NOW, India's leading business news channel. It's amazing that I could not live further away than I currently do, yet we can still do this sort of thing. Their morning TV is my evening, but it works.
In this interview we discuss the ongoing rangebound market in US Stocks and then we shift gears to India's stock market. We talk about the rotation into small & mid-caps, key levels for both the NIFTY50 and Bank NIFTY as well as the relative strength we're seeing in the bank stocks, particularly ICICI and AXIS Bank.
Greg Harmon is one of the OGs of the Financial Blogosphere. He has been consistently contributing to the community for over a decade. For you new comers, this is how it's done. Greg is the founder of Dragonfly Capital, where he is the portfolio manager and I encourage you to follow him on Twitter @harmongreg. He paid his dues early in his career traveling around the world and holding senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity at JP Morgan, State Street and BNP Paribas. It was not until after all of this experience that he...
Tuesday's Mystery Chart received some interesting responses, with some of you stating that the bottom is in, while others said it's still too early to tell.
So let's get into what that chart is and why it's relevant.
Tuesday I posted a Mystery Chart that got a lot of replies.
Most said you'd be buyers at current levels or on a pullback, but a number of you were skeptical of the recent move and would be avoiding or fading it.
The feedback I got was interesting, so let's get right into the actual chart.
This week's Mystery Chart was an inverted daily line chart of the Metals & Mining ETF relative to the S&P 500. Below is the corrected chart.
Some people actually think this world is just filled with rainbows and butterflies and stocks are always supposed to go up. I never understood that ignorance. Sometimes stocks go up, sometimes they go down and sometimes they go sideways for a while. It will take you less than 5 minutes of market history research to understand this very simple fact.
Of those 3, I would argue we are in the 'sideways for a while' category in U.S. Stocks, particularly the S&P500.
It's been a frustrating period for stocks in Canada over the past decade. Up just 7% since their 2008 highs, Canadian equities have been consistently underperforming for almost 10 years. But are things now finally changing?
Going through charts and coming up with conclusions is not just something you do once. For this to work, Technical Analysis has to be a lifestyle. Getting away from the screen regularly and coming back open minded is part of that work / life balance. In this conversation I talk about some of the struggles I've had personally trying not to let the implications of us being right in our assessment impact my decision making. Thanks to Donnie Hensley and Speedtrader for being a part of Chart Summit 2019.
Last week we wrote about signs of a long-term bottom in stocks emerging and the market has continued higher since then. Today we want to look the individual sectors to identify where we want to be selling strength, buying weakness, and avoiding altogether.
If there is one thing that has worked since October, it's cash. I feel like people are afraid of that word. Like you're doing something wrong for raising some (or a lot of) cash. Do you think it makes sense to always be fully invested? I don't.
I look at everything through the lens of potential opportunity cost. What else could we be doing with that money? In liquid markets, sometimes it's treasury bonds, other times it's gold, and of course all of the market neutral pair trades and options strategies to profit from sideways markets.
Cash is an investment too. Why do you always have to be all in? You want to think 50 years out? Go ahead. We're only concerned about the next couple of quarters. We'll worry about next year, next year. And 50 years from now? I only hope to be around sipping wine and ripping through charts. We'll see...
My presentation at Chart Summit 2019 focused on market breadth and how we like to keep our process of looking at the subject pretty simple.
While that presentation covered a number of our methods of measuring the market's internals, in this post I want to share some stats we pulled this weekend that help provide some valuable context around the market's rally from the December 24th lows.
The table below outlines the major US Indexes we cover with performance stats from important inflection points: The January 2018 highs, the September 2018 peak, and the December 24th low.
We also have some additional stats listed like percentage below 52-week high and above 52-week low, days since those events occurred, whether the daily RSI reading is in a bullish or bearish range, and whether prices are above their 200-day moving average.
The columns we want to pay attention to for now are the first three.
One of the cool things about Chart Summit this year was that we were all surrounded by smart experienced market participants with unique styles and approaches to the market. When you have a collection of talent like this, I think it's wise to pull them off to the side and pick their brains. In this conversation, I ask Todd Gordon about Fibonacci Analysis and why he uses it so frequently. Some people like to dismiss it, and that's fine. If I didn't think it helped, trust me, I wouldn't use it. But it's been helping me every day for well over a decade. I really enjoyed this chat with Todd and I'm thrilled that he was able to be a part of the first ever live Chart Summit in Breckenridge, CO.