Over the weekend I ran the performance metrics of the Russell 3000's Sectors and Industries to get some perspective on where the leadership is since the S&P 500's high on October 3rd and year-to-date. In this post I just want to share this table and talk about some of the themes I see.
On the blog we've been discussing why a more neutral approach to the market is best, as well as what we're looking for to mark a tradeable bottom. Last week we saw an expansion of new lows and stocks hitting oversold conditions in the Russell 3000, however, we are beginning to see some improvements in its daily momentum readings.
When the weight of the evidence is pointing in one direction as it has been from early 2016 through mid-2018, it makes sense to be aggressive and take advantage of the clear trends while they're intact. However, when conditions change and the evidence becomes mixed, a more neutral approach is appropriate. So what does that look like from a practical sense?
When the weight of the evidence is pointing in one direction as it has been for most of the last two years, it makes sense to be aggressive and take advantage of the clear trends while they're intact. However, when conditions change and the evidence becomes more mixed, a more neutral approach is appropriate. But what does that look like from a practical sense?
The new 52-week high list has been pretty scarce as of late, but Verizon's earnings announcement propelled its stock above an important level of resistance to 17-year highs, signaling further upside may be be ahead.
The thing about the market is that there is no holy grail. No matter how hard you try, you're not going to find it. The holy grail does not exist. We have to weigh the evidence knowing full well that we're working with incomplete information. The idea is to accumulate all of the data and make a conclusion based on all of it, not just some of it.
Today, I want to go over a few of the divergences that have put the bulls in a precarious situation. There is a large crowd of permabull "passive" investors that are taught just to buy stocks and hope for the best. They are shown all of these sexy equity curves and told again and again how much they would have made had they invested in the S&P500 in 1950 or 1982 or whatever cherry-picked date is forced upon them.
This weekend we updated our chartbooks for Premium Members of Allstarcharts India, so I wanted to do a quick post outlining the changes to our universe of stocks since the end of the first quarter.
This weekend I was down in beautiful San Diego for the 3rd annual Trade Ideas Conference. For me, it's not just about the presentation that I give or the panel that I sit on, but the people that I get to meet or see again. That's the great part about our community: everyone's ability to share and learn and recognize that we're all in this together. As we approach the market with our own individual goals and objectives in mind, along the way we pick things up from others that help us adjust and fine tune our strategies regularly over time. My friends at Trade Ideas put on a good show, but it was the engaged audience and interactions with my fellow speakers that really made the weekend great.
Here is the video of my presentation. Shoot us an email to info@allstarcharts.com if you're interested in receiving the slides:
Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he's as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we're lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one!
For our subscribers I've discussed what we need to be seeing in terms of market breadth before stepping in and trading stocks in India on the long side (here, here, here, and here) and today's action suggests we may be on our way to getting that opportunity in the next week or two.
Marijuana stocks have never been that HIGH on our list of areas to look at given their smaller market-cap, average trading volume, and short price history often inhibits larger players from participating in them, however, the strong performance as of late has drum up interest in the space and increased the number of stocks that meet our criteria to analyze them. This post will be a quick update on what we're seeing from a price perspective.
This past weekend we wrote updates for our US and India subscribers, discussing stock market breadth around the globe. When I do these types of updates, we often get asked why we look at international markets both in their local currency terms AND as US-listed ETFs. Why not one or the other? In this quick post we'll walk through our thought process behind it.
