From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Portfolio Update: As mentioned in yesterday's Market Notes, our tactical models are arguing for patience rather than aggressiveness with respect to equity exposure. That being said we want to stay in harmony with relative opportunities as they emerge. While not putting new money to work, we have tweaked the holdings in our Dynamic Tactical Opportunity Portfolio.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Not All Indexes Are Created Equal

While the Dow (DJI) has rallied nearly 20% off its October lows and retraced more than 62% of its max year-to-date drawdown, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is only about 10% above its lows, representing a roughly 20% retracement.

This disparity in index performance speaks to the relative strength from blue chip value stocks as well as the relative weakness from technology. Until we see evidence of this changing, we want to remain overweight value and underweight growth.

Our longer-term risk indicator has been in the Risk Off zone since the beginning of the year. Successive rally attempts have taken it closer and closer to a Risk On signal, but so far it has been unable to break through. 

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 just experienced its longest stretch without a 1% daily swing since Thanksgiving week 2021. But moving from volatility to calm is just part of the needed rotation. It will be difficult for bulls to stay optimistic if the market is not able to rotate from weakness to strength.   

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The yield curve is getting a lot of attention right now, and deservedly so. An inversion in the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has an unblemished record in anticipating recessions. But beyond that suite of indicators, there is actually evidence that macro conditions have stopped deteriorating.      

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Energy and Crude Diverge

Crude oil (CL_F) and energy stocks have been trending in different directions since this summer, but the gap between the two has become more pronounced during the trailing month. We’ve included the 100-day rolling correlation, illustrating how rare such a prolonged dislocation is. With the Energy sector XLE failing to hold above its June highs this week, this divergence becomes a more-concerning datapoint for energy bulls.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

Just when 2022 was getting known for noise, the markets quieted down last week. For the first time in five weeks, the S&P 500 did not move 3% in one direction or the other. For the first time this year, no trading day last week saw the S&P 500 move 1% or more in either direction. We begin a new week with the S&P 500 not having moved 1% or more in either direction in six straight days. It has been a year since it has had a longer streak of small swings.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

With stocks experiencing week-to-week swings at a nearly unprecedented level, zooming out and keeping a bigger picture in mind is an essential. The Value Line Geometric Index’s affinity for round numbers makes this an easier exercise.

This is the video recording of the November 17th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

11/17/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Long-term yields are moving lower while short-term yields continue to rise. The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields is the most negative it has been in over a decade. It has been four decades since the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields has been as negative as it is now.