This is the video recording of the December 8th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

12/8/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Portfolio Update: In our Cyclical portfolio we have moved global equity exposure from Latin America to Europe while in the Tactical Portfolio we are reducing energy exposure to take advantage of shifting global leadership and improving trends from the metals.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 continues to make lower highs as new lows have approached, but not broken below, new highs. This breadth signal occurred as the S&P 500 was peaking in January. It re-emerged near the March and August highs and appears to be doing so again.   

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts PLUS Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of  binary decisions, tactical calls and asset allocation models. 

Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help dynamic asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

The trend in commodities has rolled over but, for the 96th week in a row, the up-trend in commodities relative to stocks remains intact. You need to go back to the early 70’s to see a longer sustained period of strength in commodities versus stocks. 

The uptrend for bonds peaked in early 2021. The trend for stocks did so a year later. Commodities peaked in June and over the past few months the trend has been slowly (an unevenly rolling over). 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

China Bulls Take Charge

Chinese equities have emerged as some of the unlikely leaders among global markets. In the last month, China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) have risen 31% and 19%, respectively. Meanwhile, Emerging Markets (EEM) are only up about 8.5% over the same period.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

As the dollar was peaking in late-September, 4% of world markets were above their 50-day average and 4% were above their 200-day average. The dollar now is 8% of that peak (and below its 200-day average for the first time since June 2021). More than two-thirds of ACWI markets are now above their 200-day averages (the most in over a year) and nearly 95% are above their 50-day average (the most in nearly 2 years).  

This is the video recording of the December 1st, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

12/1/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Scales are unchanged this month, continuing to tip toward risk and away from opportunity. 

A strong finish to November has renewed hopes that the 2022 bear market is moving from present reality to past experience. The weight of the evidence argues against jumping to that conclusion just yet. Simply put, we have not seen enough market strength to justify looking past the still present macro concerns. The evidence remains cautious and so do we. 

Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into December.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 and various measures of investor sentiment all remain below their August highs. We are getting neither the broad increase in optimism nor the improving price action needed to argue that the bounce off of the October lows is the beginning of a new bull market.   

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The trend for the S&P 500 has now fallen for 34 weeks in a row. That is the longest sustained decline in the trend since the Financial Crisis ended over a decade ago.