For this week's trade, we're selling an $XLE August 65/85 Short Strangle for an approximately $2.75 credit. This means we’ll be naked short equal amounts of the 65 puts and 85 calls.
Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:
Internally, we were talking yesterday about the energy space and the recent pullback in prices. While still the strongest sector in the market in 2022, this move off the highs has been notable.
Is the trend over? Or was that just the "hot money" taking profits?
I'm not sure we have a definitive answer to that question yet. It looks to me that the market is still sorting that out. And this condition of indecision, coupled with high implied volatility priced into options is combining into a nice opportunity to collect some options premium while energy figures itself out.
So we're going to wade into the energy pool with a delta-neutral short-premium options trade.
I'll cut right to the chase: JC put out a piece this morning highlighting the relative outperformance of the Healthcare space.
The XLV sector ETF for the space has more or less been consolidating sideways as the broader markets sold off, and one of the bellwethers here is already making new all-time highs. Feels like we'll start to see more candidates here begin to participate as well.
The stock market has breathed a much-needed sigh of relief this week.
Are we out of the woods? I wish I knew.
But in case we're not, I'm hedging a little bit by taking this bounce opportunity to get into a bearish position in an Electric power generation stock that appears to be dead-cat bouncing.
There is probably a certain segment of the investing population that would look askance at me if I mentioned we're seeing "strength in China." They wouldn't believe that is possible. According to the news media they consume, China is "a mess." Perhaps that is true? But we only follow price here at our shop, and price is beginning to tell a different story.
Today's trade idea comes from TWO seemingly unlikely places: China and Internet! (what??????)
And when you see this chart of the Chinese Internet ETF $KWEB, you'll see why:
Taking losses is never fun. But it's the most important thing we do.
I wish it were different. I wish smart risk management was an exciting endeavor that made us happy. The kind of thing that makes us want to high-five our friends and adoring fans.
Unfortunately, it's more like that menial task that you have to do over and over again, hating every minute of it, but knowing it just has to be done (like the doing the dishes or laundry).
To quote our Head Technical Analyst at All Star Charts, Steve Strazza: "Bullish setups are hard to come by these days."
Yeah.
But, for those willing to venture into the choppy waters, recent market action has provided us with some nearby risk management levels that give us the opportunity to act quickly if we're wrong, limiting our losses while giving us multiples of potential profit (as measured against the risk).
And today's idea comes from the only sector to show YTD gains this year.
Stocks are heavy out there. Everything is getting sold (except Coca-Cola $KO).
But even in selling down, strong stocks and future winners can and will begin to reveal themselves, first through relative strength.
Today's idea, while down on the day like everything else, is a stock that has been quietly gathering relative strength for some time now. And if we think the selling pressure in the broader markets is close to exhausting itself, this International stock may be one of the next leaders when markets calm down.
Well helloooo again volatility! It's been an interesting week.
There are not a whole lot of charts out there that have me too excited to put any aggressive risk on here. But thanks to the jump in volatility, we do have an opportunity to sell some premium in a staple with a nearby risk management level that should help keep losses minimal if we're wrong.
It's been a minute since we've put some delta-neutral credit spreads on. And while VIX is off its highest levels of the year, there is still plenty of elevated premium in pockets.
The team here at All Star Charts has been monitoring the elevated options premiums in the Consumer Discretionary space. The $XLY ETF has been persistently hanging around the top of our implied volatility lists for the last couple of months. We talked about it yesterday during the @allstarcharts live twitter spaces chat.
And I like having a few delta-neutral trades on to provide some portfolio balance against my bullish and bearish directional bets in individual stock names. So $XLY is providing us a good opportunity to collect some income.
And until new information presents itself to get us looking elsewhere, the strongest names, best bases, and most impressive relative strength continue to be found in the energy space. Who am I to fight the facts?
Today's trade is in an Oil & Gas company that has been in an unrelenting uptrend since mid-2020 that is showing no signs of reversing.