Another week and more elevated fears in the marketplace. The Nasdaq QQQ's breached the 300 level intraday today and that's got everyone chirping --- and for good reason.
Of course, the contrarian bird sitting on my shoulder has been uttering the phrase: "the wider the rubber band is stretched, the harder the snap back!"
Now, I'm not going out on a limb and declaring that the bottom for stocks is in and we rally from here. But I do like the odds of a viscous snap back rally materializing at some point this week. And if something like that were to come to pass, I want to be in names that have held up the best in this tape.
In the All Star Charts recent Monthly Charts Strategy Session, JC highlighted a bunch of stocks that have held levels that feel significant.
And since we've seen a lot of damage to bullish charts in recent weeks, the best bets on the board right now appear in stocks that have held up better than the rest.
One mining stock that held up well after hot money ran for the exits is Newmont Corporation $NEM.
It's no secret the oil and energy sectors have been outperforming in 2022.
Of course, when a trend like that is no secret, it tends to become a crowded trade. And we've seen a taste of the ramifications of that in recent weeks. There were some vicious pullbacks in all the biggest winners about two weeks ago.
Fast forward to today, and the smoke has cleared a bit. Many of these names survived the exits of hot money and are now showing signs of resuming their prior uptrends.
At the top of this list right now is Exxon Mobil $XOM.
Hey everybody. We aren't able to put up a video Jam Session this week as the whole team is off-site in Washington, D.C. attending the CMT Annual Symposium.
Need proof? Here's me, JC, Strazza, and friends in front of the White House at midnight last night! :)
But I still want to update you on action in our open trades this week, as it's been a busy one. So here goes:
The frenetic trading activity that defined the end of last week appears to be continuing into today. And we're seeing VIX north of 30. If I liked selling premium last week, I should love it today, right?
Well, it just so happens we've got an ETF with pricing in June options that is giving us a lot of wiggle room to sell premium into. So we're going to do just that, betting on consumers to chill.
I've been talking recently about how coming out of the March expiration cycle, if feels to me that volatility (as tracked by $VIX) has changed regimes. During the first quarter of this year, buyers of vol dips were rewarded. But now it is my belief that sellers of vol spikes will be rewarded.
With that quick peek into my thinking as a backdrop, the price action in the broader stock market indices over the past few days has caused VIX to pop from 20 to north of 24 in short order and it feels to me that this might offer an advantageous opportunity for us to step in and sell some premium.