JC wanted to put this trade on yesterday (I think he did), but I wanted to wait until after the Fed announcement juuuuuust in case. You never know what shenanigans may take place on binary event risk days.
Well, my patience was rewarded. I am able to put the same delta-neutral credit spread on today at the same premiums that were offered yesterday, but now I don't have to sweat the fed.
Consumer Staples stocks, as a sector, have been displaying relatively high implied volatility in their options and so I wanted a name from this space that was stuck in a range.
The candidate that we all agreed on was Proctor & Gamble $PG:
The Junior Gold Miners appear to be temporarily stuck in the rocks. And with juicy options premiums to sell, we will take advantage of the range with a delta-neutral credit spread.
If/when the market can find it's footing, today's trade is in a name that I'd like to get aggressively bullish in for a long-term bet.
In the meantime, I'm not ready to be aggressive yet, but there is an opportunity for us to get paid to wait with a conservatively bullish bet that gives us room to be wrong.
Microsoft $MSFT announced earnings last night, and while the stock gapped higher at the open, it has spent most of the morning giving back much of those gains.
It looks to me that the prior trading range for $MSFT is acting as a powerful magnet. And the broader market weakness sure is helping things along in that regard.
At the end of the day, the market is telling us that the latest earnings report hasn't really changed any minds of Microsoft bulls or bears, and therefore, we're likely to remain stuck in this range until some new information reveals itself:
We options traders can benefit from this scenario.
I'm making the bet here the Bond Bears may have overshot here. And today's trading action feels to me like $TLT put in an actionable level to lean against for risk management purposes.
This is not a bet that the final bottom is in for bonds. Only that odds favor a bounce that might have some legs.
With this caveat out of the way, here's how I'm going to play it.
Well, every attempt I've made at wading back into the bull market pool has been swiftly met by a destabilizing splash made by a bear cannonballing off the diving board.
So, until further notice, I'm going to hang by the cabana sipping on my virgin daiquiri and waiting for calmer waters.
Meanwhile, I'm going to attempt to get paid while I wait by selling some delta-neutral premium in a (relatively) safer area of the market, as defined by a powerful bounce of recent lows in consumer staples.
I don't like this market. It can't make up its mind. Things were starting to look promising last week, then Friday happened. And even today, intraday, we're seeing weird, indecisive trading action.
So I know I'm a broken record, but as long as this sideways slop continues, I'm looking to stay delta neutral and sell premium. And with earnings event risk all over the place, it is probably best to stay with liquid ETFs.
Today's trade is a bet on stocks making a run back towards all-time highs over the next 3-6 months. If you don't believe that's in the cards for stocks, then this trade isn't for you.
Unfortunately, its also a trade in a stock with a high trading price, so the margin requirement may perhaps be a bit onerous for some.
If you're in either camp, there's no shame in skipping this trade. It's not for everyone.
If I haven't scared you off yet, then keep reading...
The utilities sector has been schmeissed (technical term) over the past couple of months. Its like all of a sudden investors all woke up en masse to finally decide the rising interest rates environment offers better alternatives for their investing dollars than relatively riskier dividend paying stocks.
This may be true, but is it possible investors may have overreacted a bit?
On a sector level, the Utilities ETF $XLU has potentially put in a tradeable bottom -- at least one we can lean against for risk management purposes. And considering their is upcoming earnings announcement risk in many of the biggest names in this sector, playing the ETF feels like the safest way to play.
Costco earns its margins before you even whip out your credit card at the checkout counter.
How?
They get paid upfront, selling you an annual "membership" that allows you to shop at Costco. That membership is all margin for Costco. This is how they can afford to sell most of their goods at or just above cost, yet still earn steady, reliable profits. What a concept!
We're gonna steal that concept by getting paid upfront.
There are no free lunches on Wall Street and certainly not in options trading.
It might be sexy to tell people that we’re “options premium sellers” and suggest that all we do is sell naked options that expire worthless – while keeping all the premiums for ourselves. Easy peasy.
But we know that’s not really how it works.
There’s a risk in holding naked short options. Our brokerage houses are keenly aware of these risks – and that’s why they require us to post margin in order to hold these positions. The margin protects the house. Mostly their house, but our houses too.
When a short options position goes against us, our brokerages need to ensure we have adequate buying power in our accounts to close the position and prevent further losses.
But just because we need to post a certain amount of dollars to hold a position doesn’t mean we should calculate our returns off of that number. That number doesn’t mean anything other than the fact that it’s the amount the house needs in order to be comfortable with us being naked short.
