I received a well-meaning question from one of our clients today regarding an open position.
This client missed getting into the trade a couple of months ago.
Paraphrasing her question, she asked, “Since the stock is still above your stop loss level, would it make sense to buy the dip here, and/or would you add to your position here?”
Again, it's a well-meaning question – one I’m sure we all often wrestle with.
The problem, however, is that the position isn’t acting well. It’s a longer-term trade for us and still has a ways to go until options expiration, but the stock is currently trading well below the level at which we first got in.
In the chart below, you can see where we entered at the purple circle:
[Note: We entered this trade on June 4th following the entry trigger. Details below]
On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza brought the heat.
It appears Bitcoin is about to start another leg higher. It's showing all the signs: A tightening consolidation on the verge of an upside resolution. And with the 100,000 level on the watch list of every professional and amateur market speculator, it's hard to believe that the next bullish breakout does not include a run to and through this highly watched level.
In the meantime, we equities options traders still have limited vehicle choices available to us to participate in this move. We've long used Microstrategy $MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy. But our feeling is that if Bitcoin makes the move everyone is waiting for, we will see the entire crypto space go with it, and that will be great news for a stock like Coinbase $COIN.
Here's where the charts of Bitcoin and $COIN stand now:
As I mentioned in yesterday's Options Jam Session, the stock market is currently sending mixed signals and it has me open to the idea of adding some short exposure to my portfolio to balance the risks to my open long positions.
So I'm on the hunt for weak stocks that are showing signs of losing significant support levels.
If there's one thing Brian Lund learned about himself over the past 30 years in the markets, he must write. Without a doubt, without even thinking about it, he knows that to express himself and to complete his thoughts into productive trading, he needs to sit down and start writing.
And this makes sense. We hear this a lot from our smart friends.
Barry Ritholtz once wrote: "I write to find out what I'm thinking."
In this conversation with Brian, we get into the importance of sleep hygiene and how it's so important for us to be at our best. Not just in trading, but in living.
We dig into challenges Brian has overcome along the way, including an ADHD diagnosis, and morphing from an always-on entrepreneur who constants has problems to solve to a trader who must sit on his hands and wait for things to happen.
We also cover his hacks like therapy, meditation, and a CPAP machine to help him maintain his sharpness.
Like all of us, Brian has suffered from the market honing in on his biggest weaknesses. He's got the battle scars to prove it. But learning from these mistakes and fighting the urge to revenge trade have been evolutions that...
If the way Nvidia is trading is an indication that the semiconductors run is far from over, then we have to believe some additional names down the cap scale will attempt to play catchup.
One of those names is Advanced Micro Devices.
Check out the ground that $AMD has to cover to get back to all-time highs:
My portfolio could benefit from some directional diversification right now. As such, I had my eye on a bearish bet this morning to help balance out my mostly directionally long exposure.
And one name that I and our analysts discussed in our meeting yesterday appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially large fall. The company will be announcing earnings on July 4th (who does that?) and I think that might be the final nail in the coffin to send this stock lower (if not sooner).
If there is one thing that stands out from any conversation with Brian Shannon about the trading process, it is this:
For discretionary traders, there are no rules. Instead, there are "guidelines."
And because Brian is human, he occasionally breaks his guidelines and suffers the same consequences as anyone else. Everyone gets what they deserve. Even a trader of 30+ years like Brian Shannon.
If a trader buys the dip or sells the rip without a plan to control her risk then she, too, will get what she deserves. Eventually. The market is always on the hunt for our weaknesses.
This is one of the things I love about my friend Brian. He doesn't tolerate nonsense. He tells it like it is. Tough love. It's what a trader needs.
And he's adamant about tuning out the noise and focusing on his strengths. For instance, he no longer pays any attention to financial TV. "It makes me emotional. TV is just theatrics. If it doesn't help me make money, I completely ignore it." He knows what he's good at, says no to everything else, and makes the best use of his time by focusing his energies on profitable pursuits.
Last week in Sonoma, we uncovered a bunch of potential trades that are setting up in a variety of sectors. But one of them is sending a glaring signal that it is ready for us to get involved right now, so let's not waste any time.