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All Star Options

[Options Premium] The Other Side of the Coin

November 10, 2023

[12/4/23: updated stop to 100]

Crypto is showing signs of a resurgence. With Bitcoin trading north of $35,000 this week, many of the old bulls are coming out of the woodwork calling for the next crypto run.

Well, if the next run is soon at hand, today's trade is in a company that is certainly positioned to benefit from any uptick in sh*t coin trading volumes.

 

[Options P2P] GREAT NEW CHANGES for Options Paid-to-Play Subscribers.

November 9, 2023

In the 16 months since we launched the All Star Charts Paid-to-Play options service, subscribers have enjoyed positive risk-adjusted returns with far less volatility and smaller drawdowns than a simple investment in the S&P 500. They've also learned how to execute our strategies to produce incredible outperformance versus comparable ETF benchmarks that seek to sell options premium.

But one thing we can all agree on is that we wish it could be simpler.

In an effort to simplify your trading lives, we'll begin presenting our daily trades and open positions in an easier format!

Instead of receiving numerous emails throughout the day alerting you to actions in the portfolio and producing repetitive videos that few of you are watching (we have the viewership data!), we're going to send you ONE DAILY DIGEST that packs far more punch.

Each daily digest will include:

[Options] The Hard Trade Can Drive Uber Gains

November 8, 2023

The market is speaking. It wants higher prices. The year-end, seasonality-driven rally may be taking hold. Or it may be something else? It doesn't really matter. We only follow price, and right now prices in certain stocks are pointing us to start taking some directional bets.

Today's trade is in an industry-disrupting name that has already had an impressive move over the past week that we feel is only the beginning of a much larger drive.

Check out this chart of everyone's favorite ride-hailing service Uber Technologies $UBER:

Make It Hurt

November 8, 2023

Do the hard thing.

Make it hurt.

Then do it again.

If these were the first three lines people read in a book about profitable trading, odds are many wouldn’t make it past the first page.

It’s natural for humans to want to avoid pain, to choose the easy path, and to put in the least amount of work for the maximum amount of output. Business schools call this “efficiency.”

And you can find plenty of examples in the real world where this is good, solid advice.

Trading is not one of those places.

The hard truth is that 80-90% of people who attempt trading in any capacity, frequency, or timeframe eventually end up net losers.

So why would we want to choose to do what the average trader is doing? The average trader is a loser. The stats don’t lie. Don’t make this fact worse by denying it.

[Options] Edge Gambling With This Proctor

November 2, 2023

JC wanted to put this trade on yesterday (I think he did), but I wanted to wait until after the Fed announcement juuuuuust in case. You never know what shenanigans may take place on binary event risk days.

Well, my patience was rewarded. I am able to put the same delta-neutral credit spread on today at the same premiums that were offered yesterday, but now I don't have to sweat the fed.

Consumer Staples stocks, as a sector, have been displaying relatively high implied volatility in their options and so I wanted a name from this space that was stuck in a range.

The candidate that we all agreed on was Proctor & Gamble $PG:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Selling Puts on a Name I'd Like to Own

October 27, 2023

If/when the market can find it's footing, today's trade is in a name that I'd like to get aggressively bullish in for a long-term bet.

In the meantime, I'm not ready to be aggressive yet, but there is an opportunity for us to get paid to wait with a conservatively bullish bet that gives us room to be wrong.

[Options] MSFT Earnings Leaves the Stock Stranded

October 25, 2023

Microsoft $MSFT announced earnings last night, and while the stock gapped higher at the open, it has spent most of the morning giving back much of those gains.

It looks to me that the prior trading range for $MSFT is acting as a powerful magnet. And the broader market weakness sure is helping things along in that regard.

At the end of the day, the market is telling us that the latest earnings report hasn't really changed any minds of Microsoft bulls or bears, and therefore, we're likely to remain stuck in this range until some new information reveals itself:

We options traders can benefit from this scenario.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Betting on a Short-Term Bounce in Bonds

October 23, 2023

I'm making the bet here the Bond Bears may have overshot here. And today's trading action feels to me like $TLT put in an actionable level to lean against for risk management purposes.

This is not a bet that the final bottom is in for bonds. Only that odds favor a bounce that might have some legs.

With this caveat out of the way, here's how I'm going to play it.

 

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Margin of Safety in Staples

October 20, 2023

Well, every attempt I've made at wading back into the bull market pool has been swiftly met by a destabilizing splash made by a bear cannonballing off the diving board.

So, until further notice, I'm going to hang by the cabana sipping on my virgin daiquiri and waiting for calmer waters.

Meanwhile, I'm going to attempt to get paid while I wait by selling some delta-neutral premium in a (relatively) safer area of the market, as defined by a powerful bounce of recent lows in consumer staples.