It doesn't happen very often that a bearish setup presents an opportunity for us to position with a simple long puts purchase. Usually, when we want to buy puts, the whole world is on to the idea and the premiums in the options market reflect that.
But today, we've got a situation where a stock is flirting with breaking a key support level, and the options market is pricing in a smaller move than our research suggests is possible.
We got stopped out of a Wells Fargo trade a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like that was the whipsaw it needed to shake weak hands out. And since I was shaken out, I consider myself among the weak hands squad. I'm ok with that.
But given what we've seen since we were stopped out, we're getting back in for another try. This time, with tighter risk management and a longer runway.
The entire All Star Charts team is presently in NYC hosting our Portfolio Accelerator event. So I will skip the preamble and get right to the point for today's trade in $TSM...
The housing sector continues to perform well, and it makes sense that companies in the mortgage business should come along for the ride.
One of those names had a big push into the end of the year, and then had a monster pull back to start 2024. We think this reversal may be a bit overdone and the stock is now at a level where we can take an advantageous position with minimal downside from here.
This comment was shared today during my appearance on the Morning Show with JC and Strazza.
We were discussing this trade in $TSLA we put on yesterday.
Sure, this trade might have some risk in it.
Newsflash: ALL trades have risk. If there was no risk, there would be no potential reward!
An Iron Condor is a four-legged options spread consisting of equal amounts of short out–of-the-money puts and calls, and long further out-of-the-money puts and calls that protect the position and define the risk.
Here’s the PnL Graph for the $TSLA trade and this is a pretty common structure for an Iron Condor trade:
Look what we have here: a $VIX popping its head up to two-month highs.
Are investors getting a little spooked by the prospect of a tricky earnings season?
We'll be able to figure all that out after the fact. In the meantime, we will use these elevated options premiums to help us ride out some portfolio profitability.
I asked my analysts to find me a big cap name that is trading sloppy.
And the one they came with is a widely followed mega-cap name that has been flopping around in a sideways choppy range which, coupled with upcoming earnings, is helping to juice options premiums.
Here's everyone's favorite EV car maker Tesla $TSLA:
One of the areas I’ve identified where I can improve my trading is in trade selection. Specifically, my trade avoidance.
Due to my early trading experience as a stock trader, it was ingrained in me during my formative trading years to avoid positioning in stocks that are about to announce earnings.
And for good reason.
Once a stock trade is on, our only real defense against punishing losses is to have a stop-loss order working. That’s fine if you trust yourself to always honor your mental stops. But for most of us mere mortals, the good-til-canceled stop-loss order is our best protection.
99% of the time, a stop-loss order works as intended. Sure, we might suffer a little slippage here and there. But it works like a charm in preventing disaster. Especially for intraday trades.
But for overnight holds, a stop-loss order has its limits. And these limits are fully exposed in the event of a binary news release – most notably earnings announcements.
Don't let today's headline scare you. I'm still bullish overall.
But with the S&P500 still bumping its head against overhead resistance, it wouldn't hurt to provide a little ballast for a mostly long portfolio here.
So with this in mind, I'm putting on a bearish trade in a stock that has not been participating in this bull market, and will likely continue to push lower as long as the broader indexes keep struggling here.
Today's trade is in a name that many American shoppers are familiar with.
You've probably seen TJ Maxx stores everywhere, frequently located in strip plazas throughout the suburbs. And there's a good chance your family has dropped some loot in there, taking advantage of the deals they are famous for.
JC commented today that he's invested in $TJX in his long-term account as a hedge for his wife's spending at this store. I think many of us can relate.
But what's got me most excited about this setup is the recent base just below $100, which would be an all-time high. Around here, we call that the hundred-dolla-roll, and it's one of my favorite setups:
