In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza highlighted the strength we're seeing in the homebuilders sector. I immediately liked it because I don't have any homebuilding stocks in my portfolio, which needs to be corrected.
Last week, Lennar Corp $LEN released earnings, and the market pretty much yawned. I like that. Because the other name that we liked better -- D.R. Horton $DHI -- hasn't yet released earnings (scheduled for July 18th) and unless they come out with something truly shocking, my bet is the market will be similarly unfazed. This tells me there's an opportunity to take advantage of some overpriced options premiums currently being bid into $DHI options.
We like $DHI to make a run back to all-time highs, and we want to be long the November 170 calls. But we will sell some overpriced options to help us finance the trade.
In fact, it's not even called General Electric anymore. The company is now called "GE Aerospace."
I bring this up because the analysts had a debate today on whether or not $GE stock bumping up against levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis even matter. Is it even the same company today as it was in 2008? The unequivocal answer is no -- it is not the same company.
Regardless, the only thing that really matters to us is the price action and its hard to ignore the run $GE has been on over the past eight months.
In today's episode of the Flow Show, Steve and I navigate some trade ideas that would help add bearish portfolio diversification in case the stock market wants to catch its breath this summer.
We discussed two specifically ugly charts, and we both agreed that Block Inc $SQ offers the best opportunity as an options trade.
It's "Fed Day." So I'm not interested in putting on any trades that might be material affected by any post-fed reaction. But I did find one that is trading in it's own universe, divorced from whatever may or may not come out of Washington.
This is a trade that will be hard for many people. Not hard to execute, just hard to comprehend the why?
Some people will look at the chart and be afraid of a pullback.
Some people will see that it's a $4 stock and say: "no thanks."
In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.
We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."
But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.
If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...
It's been a minute since I've bought anything on eBay. But, by the look of the chart, I must be the outlier as it appears there is still good business there and market participants appear to agree.
Here's what my Analysts had to say about $EBAY in a recent 2 to 100 Club report:
eBay is completing a rounding bottom reversal as it reclaims the 38.2% retracement level. This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, making it a great place to define our risk. If this breakout sticks, the primary trend is higher, and we want to be long against the 53 level.
On a relative basis, the stock is working its way higher out of a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus its peers. If the reversal pattern is completed on absolute terms, we expect the stock to outperform its peers over longer timeframes.
We want to buy EBAY above 53, with a target of 64 over the coming 2-4 months.
Consumer Discretionary stocks are on our radar. And for today's trade, we're going abroad and finding a stock that has both a great setup and is also starting to become a fashion "story" here in the U.S.
Just about anyone I've talked to about sneakers recently has mentioned this brand. It is quickly becoming a favorite. I don't currently own a pair, but if this trade pays, then perhaps I'll go buy a pair with my profits :)
[Note: We entered this trade on June 4th following the entry trigger. Details below]
On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza brought the heat.
It appears Bitcoin is about to start another leg higher. It's showing all the signs: A tightening consolidation on the verge of an upside resolution. And with the 100,000 level on the watch list of every professional and amateur market speculator, it's hard to believe that the next bullish breakout does not include a run to and through this highly watched level.
In the meantime, we equities options traders still have limited vehicle choices available to us to participate in this move. We've long used Microstrategy $MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy. But our feeling is that if Bitcoin makes the move everyone is waiting for, we will see the entire crypto space go with it, and that will be great news for a stock like Coinbase $COIN.
Here's where the charts of Bitcoin and $COIN stand now:
As I mentioned in yesterday's Options Jam Session, the stock market is currently sending mixed signals and it has me open to the idea of adding some short exposure to my portfolio to balance the risks to my open long positions.
So I'm on the hunt for weak stocks that are showing signs of losing significant support levels.
If the way Nvidia is trading is an indication that the semiconductors run is far from over, then we have to believe some additional names down the cap scale will attempt to play catchup.
One of those names is Advanced Micro Devices.
Check out the ground that $AMD has to cover to get back to all-time highs:
My portfolio could benefit from some directional diversification right now. As such, I had my eye on a bearish bet this morning to help balance out my mostly directionally long exposure.
And one name that I and our analysts discussed in our meeting yesterday appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially large fall. The company will be announcing earnings on July 4th (who does that?) and I think that might be the final nail in the coffin to send this stock lower (if not sooner).