In today's Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza came out swinging with an opportunity to add to an already winning options trade.
Back in late January, we entered into a bullish longer-term bet in Wells Fargo $WFC. You can read about it here. That original position still has until January 2025 to play out (another nine months).
But take a look at this high & tight flag forming on the eve on their next earning release scheduled for this Friday morning:
The energy sector is looking poised to break into uncharted territory, and we too are going to break some new ground by doing an options trade we've never done before in ASO.
Calling it a "trade" might even feel a little off, considering the timeframe of this one. It might be more accurate to call it an investment. Compared to most trades we do, this one has the potential to certainly feel like one.
Steve Strazza brought up charts of the energy, materials, and commodities sectors on today's Flow Show. These are "peer indexes," meaning they often trend together.
And the current trends suggest we need to add more bullish positions in these areas.
The one name that stood out the most was Freeport McMoRan $FCX:
We put on a bullish bet in biotechs a couple of weeks ago and it quickly rolled over on us. The market had other ideas.
Now here we are, a couple of weeks later, and the biotech ETF $XBI finds itself mired in a range with rising implied volatility signaling elevated options premiums:
The stock market (as measured by the indexes) continues to trek higher, speculative fervor keeps building (as measured by what's happening in crypto), and these forces are combining to make it a dangerous environment to be caught short in.
And if you're short a name that already has a high short interest? Look out!
So naturally, today's trade is a play on punishing the stubborn shorts in a particular stock that look like they are on the verge of getting epically squeezed.
In today's Flow Show on Stock Market TV, me and Strazza get into why we love buying short-dated calls in Carvana $CVNA:
Today's trade comes in a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies. Sexy, right?
Ok, maybe not. But the fact that the stock has been in a steady uptrend since November, is making new all-time highs, and has a "hundred-dolla-roll" in its sight certainly makes it very attractive to me.
Today's trade is in a name that doesn't need Wall Street.
They crush their little corner of the world, operating in the midwest. They do not need to raise money or any exotic financing. Because of this, the company is completely off Wall Street's radar. This means very few (if any?) analysts cover it. Nobody is publishing research reports on it. Essentially, there just isn't anyone talking about it.
Around here, we call these "Eddy Elfenbein stocks." Stocks that are steady dividend payers, operating excellently in obscurity, providing a product or service that so many people use that they don't even realize they are using it.
One sector that I feel a bit underexposed to right now is real estate -- particularly REITs. And when a dominant player in New York City's commercial real estate sector pops up in our scans with a beautiful chart, it feels to me like this one might be set to surprise a lot of people.