The game plan in the markets over the past several quarters has been to buy the dip whenever the S&P 500 approached its 50-day moving average of prices.
So naturally, I spent the weekend thinking about some long trades that I wanted to put on today -- thinking the same old game plan was likely to continue.
Then I woke up to S&P Futures showing the largest gap down opening we've seen in a while and $SPY indicated to open significantly below its 50-day moving average for the first time in seemingly forever.
In other words, the market was telling me to rethink my bullish ideas.
Another 20 year base breakout? This is the second one we're putting a trade on in this week! Maybe the market is trying to tell us something?
I have to be honest, when I first pulled this ticker up, I thought it was a Men's suits maker. But when I learned it's involved in the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors, the sex-factor went up for me.
This is not something we do often -- usually because these types of opportunities don't present themselves frequently. But we've identified an under-appreciated potential for a 20x gain on our invested capital if the markets cooperate.
Its the perfect storm of a megacap stock emerging from an long base, options flow showing people are starting to position for "something" and an ASC price target that doesn't appear to be priced in by the crowd.
Of course, part of the reason for the elevated options activity is due to an "Investor Day" event happening today, but the action still has been raising some attention.
As is often the case, the Labor Day Weekend has come and gone and some volatility has been reintroduced to the marketplace. And I say: "Welcome back!" with outstreched arms. Volatility = opportunity. Let's get after it.
With the rising volatility, we're seeing premiums start to pump up in options land. When this is the case, I always start hunting for some delta-neutral credit spread opportunities.
Today's hunt has yielded an excellent candidate with clearly defined levels for us to lean against.
The big indexes offered us a little pullback this week which has been helping us identify the true standouts -- the stocks that are holding up best in a down tape. We're all about relative strength at All Star Charts as it is one of the most reliable indicators for us. And true leaders really identify themselves when they are swimming against the current while markets are sliding.
So on days and weeks like this, we're paying very close attention to the strongest sectors and keying in on the strongest stocks to see how they react.
Today, one those names is in the Capital Markets space where we're seen tremendous strength this year.
JC & Strazza were riffing this morning on the strength in the Medical Equipment space and so we started brainstorming on some names to play since we expect the strength to continue.
There were a few names bandied about, but the chart and setup that most caught my attention was Boston Scientific Corp $BSX.
What I liked most was the recent consolidation which can act as a solid base of support for a move higher -- which would be all-time highs breaking out of a nearly 20 year base! As JC likes to say: "The bigger the base, the higher in space!" Seems this opportunity has a good shot at that:
During our team's weekly strategy meeting this morning, we were chatting about how the retail sector has just been hanging in there. And don't we know it -- we've had a long puts play in $XRT (the retailers ETF) since late July that hasn't gone anywhere for us. Our thinking was this sector would be the one to lead us down if the markets wanted to trade down.
Instead, it's been hanging tough and JC remarked that it might act as "a big trampoline" for some of the notable names in the space if we start moving higher.
And of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the space is Amazon $AMZN, so if we're going to play a move higher in retailers, it makes sense to start here.
Steve Strazza and I were chatting this morning shortly after the market opened, looking for trading opportunities.
We were scanning the list of stocks we've been watching and one thing that is plain to see is the stocks that are working are really working. And if we're not in them already, there's no real sense in chasing them here.
My line to him was: "It's August 30th. S&P 500 is all-time highs. You're either already long or you're in cash. There's nothing else to do here but take a walk." He agreed.
So with this in mind, I don't have a new trade idea for us today. But I'll leave you with this...
The ASC team published an Under the Hood report last week in which there were a bunch of interesting opportunities to choose from. But I held my fire -- until now.
After letting these ideas marinate a bit, I've been liking the pullback and solid support holding in one of the names.
Anything gold-related has not had any fun 2021. I can only imagine the disdain gold bugs must be feeling as they watch governments print money around the world, all things crypto soaring, and all the while their precious shiny little rocks doing jack squat.
If you've been long gold, I'm sorry.
But there's good news...
JC and I were chatting yesterday about what appears to be an opportunity in the Gold space.
Maybe, just maybe, gold has found a short-term bottom? We're not going to go out on a limb and declare THE bottom, but recent price action suggests to us that a bounce might be in store. As such, we want to get involved for a quick little hit-and-run play.