I'm at the All Star Charts Portfolio Accelerator event in New York City.
One topic I discussed this morning with everyone is a volatility-triggered setup I'm seeing in the iShares Bitcoin ETF $IBIT. We have a short history to work with, but this bears attention.
News over the weekend seems to have spooked investors this morning, particularly in the tech sector. And the effects are spilling out all across the market.
Are investors being a little overly dramatic here?
The bet we're making is YES.
Today's trade is not in a tech stock, just a boring old bank that has been trending higher for over a year now.
Today's relatively short-term trade has an earnings catalyst, and I'm betting it will propel us to profits.
The stock has already had a stellar run over the past 52-weeks. Will the upcoming earnings mark the top? I doubt it.
Here's a one-year chart of a technology company that specializes in mobile app growth and monetization solutions -- Applovin Corp $APP:
As strong as this stock has been, it looks like it's setting up for another leg higher. And the upcoming February 12th earnings report just may be the catalyst the market needs to send this stock flying again.
Of course, earnings can be a wild card, so it'll be important to define my risks.
Here's the Play:
I like buying an $APP February 400/450 Bull Call Spread for an approximately $11.50 debit. This means that I'll be long the Feb 400 calls and short an equal amount of the 450 calls. This debit I pay today is the most I can lose in a worst-case scenario:
I'm going to hold this trade, no matter what, through the February 12 earnings event.
On February 13th, my stop becomes $400. If $APP is below $400 per share, I'll close the spread for...
A stock featured in a recent Junior Hall of Famers report has triggered an entry today, and it has a lot of room to run.
Earnings are on the horizon, but we'll play this stock with a defined-risk spread that takes a little of the sting out of the options' cost while giving us the ability to participate in upside follow-through should we get it.
One of my junior analysts (Rick! He's the Man!) brought a stock to my attention that is in an attractive sector that could fly under the right conditions.
Add to this that there is a high short interest and there is "meme" stock potential, and this could really be an upside portfolio-buster for us.
Today's trade offers a nice opportunity to add some diversification to my mostly long book.
It's no secret that there has been a lot of weakness that has been masked by the performance of the broader indexes.
We've got a well-diversified business that is showing signs of completing a pretty large top, so it might offer us some alpha on the downside if weakness spreads.
Today's trade is in a $1B company that provides automatic identification solutions to commercial and government customers. Being that this company participates in the Software & IT sector, I expect it to perform well in a market environment where semiconductors are leading the way.
Today's trade is in a stock who's price action is mimicking what their products delivers for its customers -- it's going vertical! How's that for kizmet?
That trade might classify as a "hard trade," but I'll be doing what I can to increase the odds of success in my favor.
This post has been made public after the trade was closed and is no longer active. All information shared is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
As long as the pattern in today's trade holds up high, then we can profit in today's trade.
If it follows through on the upside, all the better and we'll achieve our profit target all the sooner. But as long as it doesn't falter, that's all we need to profit.
Either way, we're leveraging what the options market is offering us to increase our odds of success.
Here's a one-year chart of YPF Sociedad Anonima $YPF:
This is a $17B integrated oil & gas company from Argentina.