From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 has now declined for seven consecutive weeks and on Friday passed the 20% pullback threshold (and on cue “Bear Market” headlines sprouted like dandelions in Spring). This is the index and its so-called “generals” (the mega-cap stocks that have the greatest weighting) catching down to what has been happening beneath the surface for months. Coming into this week, the average NYSE stock was down over 30% from its high, with the average NASDAQ stock down more than 45%. This week brings us to 26 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs. 

The mega-cap S&P 100 (OEF) is making new lows while the small-cap S&P 600 (IJR) is not. Even more dramatic is the ratio between IJR and OEF (small-caps / mega-caps). Here, the May low was above the April low, which in turn was above the February low. The pattern of higher lows is established and the ratio is testing its March highs. While the headlines are about weakness in the index, the story is that relative strength is being established beneath the surface.                    

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The preliminary May reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index (published by the University of Michigan) dropped to one of its lowest levels on record. The Expectations component is still above its March low, while the view of Current Conditions is at new cycle low - and at its lowest level since late 2008. That’s right - things are seen as worse now than they were at the worst of the COVID-related shutdowns. At one level this seems ludicrous - the S&P 500 is just a few months removed from record highs and pretty much anyone who wants a job can get one. On the other hand, everyone is seeing surging prices at the grocery store and gas station. They see surging balances on their credit card statements, but collapsing balances on their brokerage statements. This an unfamiliar environment for an entire generation of investors who have never experienced a double-digit year-over-year drawdown in the NASDAQ 100. It’s particularly acute for investors who listened to the advice of “experts” and have bought every dip this year. We don’t need to look at this incredulously and suggest things aren’t actually as bad as they have been in...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Our weight of the evidence dashboard argues for caution, as risk outweighs opportunity. This is echoed by our Risk Off - Risk On indicators, which never showed a decisive move toward Risk On assets as stocks moved off their lows in March. Assessing the situation through the lens of various intra- and inter-market relationships, our range-o-meter shows a move toward Risk Off leadership over the past month. Risk Off assets are gaining strength, Risk On assets are stumbling. Where things go from here remains to be seen. None of us can predict the future. But we can identify whether we are in a higher risk or lower risk environment and adjust our portfolios accordingly. One of the best things I heard at last week’s CMT symposium came from Frank Teixeira: “The market gives you a lot of information if you are willing to listen for it.”        

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

One of the refrains I heard coming into 2022 was that, given inflation, holding cash was an expensive proposition. It is true that over the past year, inflation has eaten away 8.5% of the real purchasing power of the dollar. But it has only taken the market 75 trading days this year to reduce the value of stocks and bonds by an even larger nominal amount. Surging inflation is prompting an aggressive policy response from the Fed, pushing bond yields higher and weighing stocks and bonds. Passive investors have seen their portfolios stumble to their worst start to a year in the past quarter century. There is a challenge brewing for the passive index-based investment approaches that have soared in popularity in recent years. Holding cash in inflationary environments does come with a cost, but it has the benefit of flexibility in the face of uncertainty. And the way it looks right now, holding stocks and bonds has been even more expensive.        

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Fed was all over the news this week, going out of its way to telegraph to the market its intention to pursue an accelerated pace of rate hikes. Fed funds futures seem to be getting the message. A month ago, futures were priced for year-end fed funds rate of 1.50 - 1.75%. That is now up to between 2.50% - 3.00%. In past accelerated tightening cycles, both stocks and commodities were strong into the initial rate hike. Their paths, however, soon diverged. Commodities remained strong and on average didn’t peak until a year and a half after rate hikes began. Stocks have tended to struggle during these tightening cycles, working sideways to lower for an extended period of time. Every cycle has its own unique characteristics, but if history is any guide it makes sense to favor commodities over stocks when the Fed is rapidly tightening monetary policy.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We discussed the need to look beneath the surface of the market in our Weekly Townhall and I  mentioned it again on the Townhall Takeaway Livestream. This chart for the weekend hits that point one more time. When we look across the global market composites, Emerging Markets have experienced the largest drawdown from their 52-week high. When we look beneath the surface of the indexes, the median emerging market has had a smaller drawdown than the median Developed Market or the median Frontier Market. When we look at it from a country-level perspective, trends in Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets are stronger than they’ve been at any point in the past decade. That isn’t reflected in the indexes yet, but it may just be a matter of time until we see that transition. Speaking of transitions, while this chart is still looking at the distance below 52-week highs, we are starting to find ourselves thinking more about where things are relative to their 52-week lows.    

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There is still one week to go before it ends, but Q1 2022 has been a remarkable quarter in many respects. If this year has taught us anything, it’s that a lot could change between now and when the closing bell rings next Thursday. But as it stands now, this will be the first down quarter for stocks since Q1 2020 and it will go down as the worst quarter for bonds in a very long time. Both stocks and bonds falling by more than just a marginal amount makes this a particularly forgettable quarter for investors in passive 60/40-type portfolios. There has been no place for them to hide. Not strength to offset weakness. Recent weak quarters for balanced portfolios saw strength in bonds offsetting weakness in stocks. Recent weak quarters for bonds have coincided with strength in stocks. The only somewhat similar experience in the past quarter century was Q3 2008 - bonds were down but only modestly. Two takeaways: First, this helps explain some of the dour mood among investors. Second, quarterly rebalancing this time around will have otherwise passive investors sell what has been weak (stocks) and buying what has been even weaker (bonds...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The FOMC meeting is out of the way and the quiet period for Fed speakers that preceded it has ended. We are now getting a barrage of “how we got it wrong” inflation retrospectives and “how we can get it right” policy tightening perspectives from Federal Reserve Presidents and Governors. A proper understanding of both of these helps explain the path we’ve traveled and what might lay ahead. While labor supply crunches and supply chain disruptions have played their part, the Fed seems to have forgotten Milton Friedman’s famous quote: “Inflation is always & everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Money supply rose 25% in 2020 and another 13% in 2021. The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by 78% in 2020 and another 18% in 2021. Inflation soared and has proven not to be transitory in large part because these liquidity increases have persisted. If the Fed is going to get ahead of inflation, it will have to stop blaming exogenous factors and focus on the instruments over which it has some control. And Financial assets will have...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks attempted to rally this week. Following Tuesday’s abortive attempt to regain the considerable ground lost on Monday, the S&P 500 posted its best daily gain since 2020 on Wednesday (+2.65). The S&P 500 is still down on the week as I write this, but if the right headlines cross the wire this afternoon, anything could happen. That’s the kind of environment we are in. One filled with plenty of day-to-day noise. Stepping back, the S&P 500 attempted to rally off the lows in both January and February as well. Then, lower highs were ultimately followed by lower lows. The consistent theme as the indexes have moved lower off of their early year highs has been weakness beneath the surface. The number of stocks making new lows has been persistently higher than the number of stocks making new highs. When that changes, and we see evidence of meaningful improvement in breadth, we can take a more constructive view of rally attempts. For they deserve skepticism. Let’s make it a mantra (or at least a T-shirt): “No Thrust? No Trust!”  

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Bond market moves are getting plenty of attention this week. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to levels not seen since the opening trading sessions of 2022 and German yields have dipped back into negative territory (and will again have to contend with resistance at zero). Credit has been slower to react. The Moody’s BAA Corporate yield is just a few basis points off its high and upside momentum remains intact. Except for a brief COVID related blip, the six month change in corporate yields is at its highest level since the financial crisis. This matters because all of the net gains in the S&P 500 over the past twenty years have come when corporate yields have been falling. It has been very difficult for the S&P 500 to make any upside progress when the path for yields has been higher. Even before the Fed has started to raise rates or drawdown its balance sheet, the liquidity backdrop has already deteriorated.  

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was certainly a busy week filled with volatility-inducing headlines that produced sharp sell-offs and stunning reversals. And all in just four trading days. Stepping back from the noise, it can be helpful to take stock of what has changed and what has not. One of the things that has not changed, is that on the NASDAQ new lows continue to outnumber new highs. It is true that there were fewer new lows on Thursday than there were at the January low. But for evidence of sustainable improvement, we don’t just want to see fewer new lows, but actually see more new highs than new lows. It has been 35 trading days since that has happened, the longest such stretch since late 2018/ early 2019 (and the second longest stretch since the financial crisis more than a decade ago). When this changes (and at some point it will) we can think about the NASDAQ from a more constructive perspective. Until then, it might be best to remember that the best rallies tend to occur within bear markets and those are best observed from the sidelines.

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There are plenty of ways in which we make our lives more complicated. There’s an endless list of things we could look at that would obscure our perspective. If I’ve learned anything in nearly a quarter century in this business, it’s that simple trumps complicated and clarity beats obscurity. That’s what makes this week’s one for the weekend so lovely. The 48 markets that make up the ACWI can be summed up in seven charts: 3 regional composites and 4 individual countries. A single slide provides a great starting point for identifying new opportunities and increasing risks on a global scale. The message now is straightforward. The UK and Canada have broken out on a relative basis and EM looks like it wants to. The US has pulled back to an important juncture and the rest of the world remains messy. (Shout out to Grant for putting this global dashboard together.)