With stocks selling off this quarter, the bears are back.

Could you imagine still telling yourself that the rally we got in equities over the past year was a bear market?

What kind of serial killer thinks like that?

A 3-5% correction in some of the major Indexes can cause people to lose their minds.

Heck, you may be wondering yourself if this is the beginning of a huge move lower for stock prices. I certainly am.

Remember, every big move starts with a small one. But not every small move turns into a big one.

That's where Credit Spreads come in. If there is real stress in the market, you're going to see it in credit.

But as stock prices corrected this month, Credit Spreads only got more narrow.

Here's an easy way to view that, comparing the prices of High Yield Bonds vs US Treasury Bonds:

This is the video recording of the August 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

For me, this is what we want to watch.

Are you wondering whether this correction in the stock market can turn into something much more severe?

I certainly am.

As thrilled as we are to see some of these Tech and Growth stocks get hammered, the question is whether this aggressive selling will spill into other more value-oriented areas.

There are 3 main charts that we have on our radar.

The first one is in credit. If we're entering into a new bear market, or an aggressive period of high volatility, you are likely to see that stress in the bond market. If Treasuries begin to outperform High yield, it's evidence of that stress.

The next one is in High Beta vs Low Volatility stocks. This ratio tends to move very closely with the averages. If you start to see a bid in Low Volatility stocks relative to High Beta, then this correction is likely to be more severe.

And finally the Consumer Discretionary vs Staples. Similar to the High Beta / Low Vol ratio, this tends to signal rotation into more defensive areas of the market.

Here's what that looks like:

Remember in the back half of last year, when virtually everything was working EXCEPT for Tech stocks?

Well a funny thing happened early in 2023, money rotated into Tech and other Large-cap Growth.

These Tech stocks did so well, that people who are bad at math convinced themselves, and others around them, that it was only 5 or 7 stocks going up.

That was hilarious.

And while it definitely wasn't just 7 stocks, but thousands of stocks ripping in your face all year, Technology was certainly the leader along the way, particularly on a market-cap weighted basis.

But that relative strength has been rolling over the past few months as momentum has also diverged negatively.

Doesn't that make perfect sense during a regime change?

Take a look at a chart of Technology relative to the S&P500 already making new multi-month lows:

It took most investors over a year to realize stocks had been in a bull market that whole time.

And now that, "breadth is finally improving" and, "the recession isn't coming", you get the classic rug pull and rotation into defensive sectors.

This is just a friendly reminder that the most bullish period of the entire 4-year cycle has just come to an end.

How'd you do?

Stocks broke records in terms of performance and have been in the midst of a raging bull market, driven by sector rotation and breadth expansion.

All of this is perfectly normal.

Stocks did very well at exactly the time that they were supposed to.

Not sure why so many are surprised by it.

Now that even the biggest permabears threw in the towel and started turning more optimistic, we are now entering the most bearish time for stocks:

This is the video recording of our August 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

The fact that Energy hasn't even broken out yet really stands out to me.

Energy, and commodities in general, have been left for dead this year.

Investors have forgotten about that third asset class: Commodities.

It's not just stocks and bonds kids.

There are Commodities too!

Here's the Energy Sector Index, flat over the past 15 years.

It still hasn't even broken out:

I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for, and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and we've seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, take a look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ currently running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average are both hitting new 52-week highs.

These are things we see regularly in uptrends. Not so much in downtrends:

Monday night, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get into it!

This is the video recording of the July 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.