“If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich” - Charles Thomas Munger
R.I.P. Legend.
Charlie, of course known for his fundamental analysis alongside Warren Buffett all these years, was a closet Technician at heart.
His analysis of human behavior was top notch, particularly misbehavior and stupid behavior.
His comment to Warren about the reason they were so rich was because people are so often wrong, was spot on.
If you've been paying attention, we use this to our advantage quite a bit.
For example, twelve months ago Wall Street strategists forecasted an outright fall for stocks in 2023, the first time this century that they had predicted a loss...
Last Week, we held our November Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Last night was our LIVE Mid-Month Strategy Session. It was probably one of the most important Live Conference Calls we've ever held.
It's odd because we're in the middle of a raging bull market, but it feels that almost no one is participating in it.
Just look around. Over the past 18 months people have told me how crazy I am for buying stocks. But you know, it's been really rewarding buying stocks.
It's the selling of stocks that has generally not worked out very well for investors.
But what do we do now, as we enter the early stages of the most bullish time of the year?
We held our November Monthly Strategy Session Wednesday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
Monday night we held our September Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Did you think inflation was just going to come and go?
Just like that? And now we all move on?
I highly doubt that it's that simple.
According to the bond market, inflationary pressures are likely just getting started.
This is a $120 Trillion asset class that's so big there's just no where to hide.
For instance, take a look at the Inflation-protected Treasury Securities, that we refer to as TIPs. And when you compare them to nominal yielding Treasury Bonds, you'll notice the new 52-week highs this week in the ratio between the two.
This is what the bond market is pricing in for inflation. Not the angry economist on the internet. Not the pretty lady on basic cable.
This is the bond market. This is whose opinion actually matters:
