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Inflation? Is this really it?

March 30, 2024

Gold just went out at a new all-time high. That's over $2250 for an ounce of Gold. The most ever.

And it shouldn't be that surprising really. Gold has already been making all-time highs priced in other currencies like Euro, Pounds, Yen and Rupee, among many others.

Now Gold is making new all-time highs priced in US Dollars as well.

Notice how Gold and Copper don't move in different directions for too long historically.

This isn't just a Gold thing. This is a metals thing.

3 Divergences To Watch

March 27, 2024

There are 3 big divergences right now that I think we want to keep a close eye on.

The first ones comes straight from Papa Dow.

We're looking at a classic Dow Theory Divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average.

We've seen these sorts of things before major market tops. You saw it in 2000, you saw it in 2008, you saw it in 2015 and you saw it in 2020.

In this particular case, you're seeing new highs from the Dow Industrials but lower highs in the Transports:

US Dollar: Turn Down For What?

March 25, 2024

That was the highest weekly close for the US Dollar Index since early November.

The trend has been higher for the US Dollar throughout the entire 1st quarter of 2024.

Remember, the Dollar bottomed towards the end of December in 2023.

So how much higher can the Dollar go?

Tech Struggles Continue

March 20, 2024

There hasn't been much going on in the new lows lists this year.

As I've mentioned here plenty, you cannot have a market correction, mathematically, without the prices of stocks falling.

Well, there's been some action in the short-term new lows recently with Technology leading the way.

Half the Large-cap Tech stocks just hit new 10-day lows, and Technology has seen the most amount of new 1-month lows of any sector.

Small-caps have struggled the most:

Re: Your Bond Market Crash

March 18, 2024

Over the weekend I found myself having to remind someone that the U.S. Bond Market is crashing.

I know many of us have just grown accustomed to the bond market crashing all year, every year.

But this isn't just something to dismiss, like many investors have apparently found themselves doing.

This is the biggest bond market crash in our lifetimes.

This Will Cause So Much Pain

March 17, 2024

Are you prepared for a market environment where Commodities are ripping higher and stocks continue to struggle?

Don't worry, most people are not.

In fact, so few people are prepared for this line to go up, and so much pain will be felt by so many (investors or otherwise), that this is exactly the outcome I'm betting on.

Higher Rates = Opposite of Lower Rates

March 16, 2024

Have you heard that stocks are going up in anticipation of lower interest rates?

Me too.

That's hilarious isn't it?

What about all those journalists?

Are they feeding you the same garbage?

Yup!

How about the Biden?

This guy is still the President of the United States. And he's telling you that rates are going down.

Have any of these people even bothered to look?

Or are they just lying to you?

Neither is an acceptable answer.

The U.S. 10-year Yield just went out yesterday at the highest weekly close since November.

Growth vs. Value at a Crossroads

March 14, 2024

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

One of the major themes we’re monitoring closely right now is the Growth vs Value relationship.

While Growth has dominated for the past couple of quarters, the technical setup suggests it may be time for value to take the lead.

The chart below shows the ratio testing a critical area of former resistance from above.

This is NOT 2023

March 14, 2024

In the latest example of, "This is not 2023", take look at what Energy stocks have been doing.

And I'm not talking about Coal and Uranium.

Specifically, the Oil & Gas Services, Producers & Explorers and the Integrated names are all outperforming.

This did not happen last year.

Time To Bet On The Bull

March 9, 2024

The stock market feels heavy.

The majority of stocks are having a hard time making new highs.

Some of the largest Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks keep breaking down to new lows.

So let's check in on how the journalist community feels about the current market: