What does the market environment look like if stocks are under pressure, and loading up on stocks is probably a bad idea?

Well, I'd argue we'll probably stop seeing new highs in Aussie Dollar and US 10-yr Yields:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In a recent post discussing cyclicals, we posed the following question:

Are Energy and Financial stocks about to lead the market?

Cyclical groups are catching all the right tailwinds in this environment.

Crude Oil and Yields are pressing to new 52-week highs as investors continue to favor more economically-sensitive stocks and commodities in general. This is a bullish development and supports higher prices for some of the most beaten-down risk assets... even Financials and Energy.

As participation has expanded, we've been vocal about looking for the winners in each group without a sector bias based on relative strength.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to harp on the risk-on themes that support our bullish macro thesis.

Rotation down the market-cap scale, commodity strength, and defensive alternatives making new relative lows have been some major themes we continue to see play out.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

They say the Bond Market is where the smart money is. Maybe it is. I have no idea.

What I do know is that it's where a lot of the smart information is.

Due to the diversity among credit instruments, there is a swath of unique data that we can use not just for Bond prices and Interest Rates but also to glean insight into other asset classes.

I'm talking about things like TIPS for inflation expectations and Emerging Market or High Yield Bonds to analyze risk-appetite for other assets such as the stock market.

Alpha has been in Equities and risk-assets for a while now. As such, we haven't needed to discuss bonds from a portfolio perspective... but that doesn't mean we aren't paying close attention to these assets.

The Bond Market is overflowing with information. We'd be foolish to neglect it.

This week on the podcast, Jonathan Krinsky joins me for a chat about Sector Rotation. While the Mega-cap names like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft grinded sideways, or even down, since August, the Small-caps, Mid-caps and Micro-cap names have been the leaders. What happens if the Mega-caps break out of these bases to new all-time highs? Does the sector rotation continue? Or do we then rotate into the more defensive areas like Staples, Utilities and REITs, which currently keep making new relative lows?

I'm getting trolled more than I have in a long time. It's almost like people are mad at me for being as bullish of equities as we've been, and continue to be...

What's everyone so angry about? I don't understand.

Anyway, yes there are stocks we want to buy. Can some stocks go down? Sure. Does that change the fact that there are stocks we want to buy or own? No.

As far as potential headwinds for stocks go, I've got 3 pretty simple ones today.

This is the video recording of the January 2021 Conference Call.

I've been waiting for Europe to break out since I was in high school. That was over 20 years ago. And people have the audacity to tell me that stocks are in a bubble.

Are you kidding me?

This is our ASC Research Q1 2021 Playbook.

The first section dives deep into the US Stock Market and Market breadth, then we discuss the International Markets and specific Factors around the world. Next we go into U.S. Sectors and the best looking Industry Groups. In the second half of the report, we dive into the FICC space (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) and their Intermarket Relationships. Finally we finish up with Cryptos, Options and overall Market Sentiment.

You can skip right to the trade ideas here if you'd like, or give the full report a read!

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The weight of the evidence continues to overwhelmingly lie in favor of the bulls.

The major indices are above important levels and are well on their way to achieving our targets. We're seeing sector rotation into offensive, cyclical areas of the market, and away from defensive, which is all confirming these new highs.

Commodities are showing incredible strength in the face of extreme positioning, reflecting the control buyers have in these markets.

If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”

There's a lot of noise out there.

It's poison.

The glorified gossip columns and cartoon networks keep proving to be the equivalent of sugar and trans fat packed fast food.

Don't be mentally obese.

Stick to price.

It's better for the portfolio.

It's better for the soul.

It's a Bull Market you know...

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but owning stocks and spending our time looking for stocks to buy has been a much better idea than shorting stocks and spending your time looking for stocks to sell.

It's not even close.

Just think back at all the people who told us to do the opposite every day, every week and every month since the Spring.

Gross.

Is there anything out there not going up in price, I mean other than U.S. Treasury Bonds?

Stocks are making new highs. Precious metals are underperforming, as usual, but at least they're trying to push up against new absolute highs.

Looks like the Bond bulls are just throwing in the towel: