Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
You can consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes as well as discuss the most important themes and developments taking place in markets all around the world.
While the weight of the evidence remains in the bull's favor, we continue to see more data arrive that suggests the environment could be shifting toward one that is less conducive to risk assets, at least over shorter timeframes.
This is a fun one. I got to sit down with Paul Ciana to talk about all things Fixed Income, Commodities and Currencies. Paul is now the Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist and Director of Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in the early days, him and I used to study for our CMTs together back in 2006.
What's nice about this is that in his current position, and for 10 years at Bloomberg prior to his 5 years at BofA, he's had the opportunity to speak to many of the largest portfolio managers in the world. I want to know what he's learned from all those conversations!
Paul always gives great perspective and as you know, the macro view carries a big weighting throughout our process. So this episode really hit home.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The bullish picture still lies as a structural backdrop.
But now, we're seeing mixed signals as many areas have become increasingly vulnerable in recent weeks. This is all taking place as defensive assets have found a footing for the first time in over a year, while risk-on assets approach logical levels of supply.
Recent weakness has been particularly isolated in former leadership groups, like Small-Caps and Growth-heavy areas.
The DeFi Revolution is upon us, at least according to Jim Bianco. For many years, I've looked up to Jim and the work he's been doing at Bianco Research and, in fact, he's the one who first inspired me to rip through hundreds of charts during my live presentations in order to get my points across. It took me about a decade to realize it, but it was him who I got that from.
Fast forward to 2021, and the Macro Technician who I've always admired has turned into one of the leading voices of what's taking place in DeFi, or "Decentralized Finance". Who better to talk to about what's going on than Jim himself? Ethereum, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Yield Farming, Metamask Wallets, Coinbase....the whole thing.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The weight of the evidence still suggests it's prudent to be a buyer, not a seller, of risk assets for more meaningful time horizons.
Shorter-term, the market looks increasingly messy. For the first time in over a year, defensive assets are beginning to stabilize at logical levels of support, while stocks and major risk groups achieve our upside targets. Even a handful of some key Intermarket ratios are potentially diverging from the broader averages.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @GrantHawkridge
The credit market is overflowing with information.
We haven’t discussed it too much lately… but that doesn’t mean we aren’t paying close attention.
It would be foolish to overlook it. After all, they call Bond traders the “smart money” for a reason... Right?
We’ve recently discussed the theme and likely implications of how so many major stock market indexes - in both the US and abroad, are hitting very logical levels of overhead supply right now.
We think it’s no coincidence that all of this is occurring at the same time. And you’ll never guess what else…
We’re also seeing this very same behavior from some of the most important Bond Market ratios we track, as many are currently running into crucial inflection points.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In recent weeks, we've seen some rotation back into Large and Mega-Caps, which has propelled the major indices to new highs, while SMIDs are still resiliently consolidating. While the list of negative data points has grown, it's still not close to anything that warrants concern.
Last night I popped into BNN Bloomberg to talk about what's going on in the market.
We're seeing new highs across a lot of major indexes, but what's happening underneath the surface?
We've been seeing the price of lumber soaring along with things like Steel and Rebar futures. It's the whole demand/building/growth theme that continues to stand out.
One thing that's definitely worth watching is the All Country World Index Ex-U.S., which is basically a snapshot of what the rest of the world looks like. And you'll notice that the index ETF $ACWX is stuck right between its 2008 highs and 2018 highs.
This puts the global stock market in quite a predicament. If you're bullish equities, you're going to want to see a breakout through those historic 2008 highs. If you're bearish equities, this is one you want to see break back below those 2018 highs.
