As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
Last month I shared a video of my Happy Hour with Traders Kimmy Sokoloff and Joe Fahmy. You guys sent in amazing feedback and I really enjoyed doing it. So today, I want to give you a peak at my conversation with Andrew Thrasher and Dan Russo. They both love drinking wine and we've always had that in common, so we discussed some of our favorites as well as our thoughts on the stock market and bond market.
It's cool to be able to sit back and relax with two of the smartest guys out there and hear what they have to say. I hope you enjoy!
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Now, let's see where these indicators ended the week.
We haven't talked much about Real Estate $XLRE lately because there really hasn't been much to say. Over just about any timeframe, it's underperformed the S&P 500 $SPY, which we'll illustrate with a ratio chart below.
Price is basically unchanged over the trailing year. The only sectors that have performed worse are Industrials $XLI, Financials $XLF, and Energy $XLE. This is not a group you want to be associated with.
Looking at the chart, you'll notice it's gone nowhere for much longer than just the past year. XLRE has actually been chopping around in a messy range for the better part of four years now!
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
We take a consistent intermarket approach to stocks. Not only do we analyze all the Stock indexes, both domestically and around the globe, but we also compare stocks to other asset classes. This is historically very helpful information to determine the direction of the primary trend for stocks.
Today, we're taking a look at stocks running into major resistance relative to its alternatives. More specifically, stocks are failing relative to both Bonds and Gold.
As you can see in this chart, we saw significant support near this gray shaded area in late 2018 and then once again in August of last year. This "Support" finally gave way and broke in early March, almost 4 months ago. This former "Support" has now turned into "Resistance" throughout June:
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Now, let's see where we stand after another strong week in the market.
In mid-April, we posted a list of 20 key chart levels we were monitoring in some of the most important assets around the world. We've used this as a risk-gauge to measure the internal strength or weakness of the market in the time since.
The list started at 60% bullish, never fell below 50%, and has been stuck at 90% with the same two bearish hold-outs for the past month now. The list has grown consistently more bullish since we began tracking it as more charts continued to break above our levels.
Since the end of May, 18 of the 20 items have been in bullish territory and many have run a good amount from our risk-levels. With the strongest stocks and indexes making new all-time highs and confirming this bullish outlook, prices have spoken and it's time we retire our bull market checklist.
