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What We Look For When Fading Strength

August 29, 2018

Over the last few months we've talked about the diminishing number of short setups as even the weakest sectors and individual names begin to stabilize, however, we're still open to short opportunities. So today I want to discuss what goes into our thought process in distinguishing between stocks that we want to be selling strength in, as opposed to stocks that are stabilizing and not the best candidates to short.

For the purposes of this example we'll talk about two stocks in the Industrial Manufacturing Industry to show that while this is a weak Industry, the individual names to play this theme through are very different.

[Premium] India Chartbook Update Takeaways

August 29, 2018

In our last India Chartbook Update post we discussed a continuation of the trends we've been seeing for most of 2018, as well as some new developments in the Commodities and Currencies space. Additionally, our mid-cap update discussed our shifting view of that market-cap segment and highlighted the best opportunities in our view. We also did a small-cap update post the following day highlighting our views there. Today we're going to discuss any major changes over the last two weeks at a high level, which will direct you to the Chartbook areas to look for these themes.

[Premium] Chartbook Update Highlights

August 12, 2018

This weekend all of the Chartbooks on the site were updated, so this is a quick post to highlight some of the significant developments since they were last updated. In our last update summary we discussed  the fresh breakouts in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and IT, as well as the continued strength in large-caps relative to mid and small-caps. Today we're going to check in on those themes and also highlight some new ones.

[India Chart of The Week] Short Squeeze In Hindustan Construction

August 10, 2018

If you've been reading our blog for a while, you're probably familiar with our process and how we identify reward/risk scenarios that are ridiculously skewed in our favor. With that said, the way we accomplish that doesn't always look exactly the same. Sometimes we're buying breakouts and trading with the trend, other times we're trading against the trend for mean reversion, and other times it's some combination of strategies.

[Premium] Fading The Mid and Small-Cap Bounce

August 8, 2018

This entire year we've been talking about under-performance in the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market. To take advantage of that we've wanted to be shorting, or at least avoiding longs in, the weakest names in sectors like Public Sector Banks, Infrastructure, Metals, Media, Realty, etc. Last month many of our downside price targets were hit from a tactical perspective and we took a more neutral approach, waiting for better entries on the short side. Now that we've seen a multi-week bounce off the lows in the mid and small-cap indexes, we're going to revisit the space for the best reward/risk setups on the short side.

[India Chart of The Week] Sun Pharma A Leading Indicator?

August 3, 2018

Most Nifty Indexes' largest components have a very large weighting on their performance, and Nifty Pharma is no exception. Sun Pharmaceuticals represents roughly a quarter of the index, so today we're going to look at it's role as a potential leading indicator for the rest of the sector.

Below is a daily line chart of the Nifty Pharma Index overlayed with Sun Pharmaceuticals. What we see from this relationship is that Sun Pharma generally leads the index, so when it's showing relative strength a move higher is likely, and when it's showing relative weakness then a move lower is likely. The two rarely separate from each other for long.

July Monthly Chart Updates

August 1, 2018

It's the end of the month, which means we've got new monthly charts. Last month we discussed the strength in large-cap Financial Services, Consumer Goods, IT, and in certain areas of Pharma, while the weakest areas were mid and small-cap Infrastructure, Metals, Commodities, Realty, Media, and Autos. This post is going to discuss any significant changes from last month, but members can find the rest of the updated charts in the Chartbook.

The strength in large-caps continues, as shown by the Nifty 50 making a new all-time closing high. This month's candle opened at the lows and closed at the highs, signaling a continuation of its uptrend after 6 months of consolidation. If prices are above 11,165 we want to be long as our next price objective us up near 15,260.