Small and mid-caps have been hit hard since late August, so rather than look for short opportunities after a large move, we're looking for potential counter-trend trades on the long side. Today's candidate is PTC India.
Mid and small-caps have been hit hard over the last month, so I wanted to do a quick update post on how we should be approaching these indexes over the short-term.
September has been a month where the market's experienced some sharp moves to the downside, so I want to use this post to review what we spoke about last month and provides some context around any changes that have occurred since then.
In life we have the saying "Make hay while the sun shines", suggesting that we take advantage of something while conditions are favorable because we don't know when those conditions will end or when they will be favorable again. In markets it's similar in that we want to be our most aggressive when the majority of the evidence is pointing in one direction or another.
Last week was our Members-Only Conference Call, where we discussed what we're seeing in Equities, Commodities, and Currencies. During our discussion around Equities there were two themes that came up over and over again due to their impact on the overall market's direction: weakness in the Financial Services sector and small-cap under-performance.
Given the mixed signals we continue to get from this market, I wanted to share my thoughts on these themes and get feedback on what you all are seeing out there.
During last week's Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of themes, including some potential improvements in the price action of Gold and other metals. However, in this quick post I want to highlight some opportunities that may potentially emerge in the Base Metal space over the next few weeks and months.
The Island Reversal is a rare but important pattern that has shown up across many of India's Major Indexes this month. As a result, I want to use this post as an educational opportunity to highlight what this pattern is, as well as explain how we're interpreting it in today's market.
After a more than 40% year-to-date and 60% 2-year decline, we've been eyeing Tata Motors on the long side for some mean reversion. For the last two months the stock has been range-bound, but the recent breakout has shifted the reward/risk in favor of the bulls over the short-term.
This week's "Chart of The Week" is exploring the potential 20% upside in Tata Motors, however, I want to use this post to explore the rest of the Automobile Sector for potential opportunities.
The Nifty Financial Services Index accounts for roughly a third of the Nifty 500's weighting. With the next largest components Consumer Goods (13.40%), Energy (12%), and IT (10.90%) ripping to the upside, we know that they'll eventually need to rest, which is why the Nifty Financial Services Index is by far and away the most important chart in India right now.
August's monthly charts are out for Premium Members, but in this post I want to highlight some of the key changes to, or continuation of, the structural trends that these long-term charts provide perspective on. This 30 minutes per month is some of the most valuable time each month.