When we talk about Equities, we need to think about them holistically as an asset class as opposed to simply focusing on the individual stock or sector or index we're looking at.
With that being said, today's focus is on one sector and its largest component, both of which look vulnerable to further downside.
Let's take a look.
One of the tools we use for Indian stocks due to how top-heavy the market is are chart overlays of a sector/index's largest component and the underlying sector/index. The largest component in most cases can represent a major portion of an index and act as either a helium balloon or lead balloon, pulling the index up or down on a whim. When their performance diverges, that's when we want to pay attention.
Over the last few months, we've seen a divergence in the performance of Vedanta Ltd. which represents 19% of the Nifty Metal Index. Vedanta is making lower highs as the sector makes higher highs, suggesting that potential weakness could be ahead the group as a whole.
Our conclusion then was to be avoiding the sector on the long side and that its weakness was a drag on the broader market given its 10% weighting in the Nifty 500.
Today, not much has changed, in fact, it's arguably getting worse.
The Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 are back at the top of their multi-year range right as we're starting to see signs of exhaustion in various global markets.
Failed breakouts and bearish momentum divergences help us to identify potential reversals in the market and we're seeing a few of them occur in India and elsewhere.
While we were going to write a comprehensive post on the most important monthly charts from November, we realized there are only two that matter to India's stock market right now.
This week's Chart of The Week outlined a compelling case for the Pharmaceutical sector to bottom at current levels, so this post is going to outline the stocks we want to be buying to capitalize on this potential inflection point.