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Pharma's Trend Looks Ready To Accelerate Higher

January 20, 2020

Roughly 2 months ago we outlined why there was potential for strength and outperformance from the Nifty Pharma sector and its components.

We've gotten some nice moves since then and given the rotation we're seeing in other areas of the market like Consumer Goods and Technology, the charts are suggesting Pharma stocks are getting ready to accelerate to the upside.

Here's the Nifty Pharma Index, which confirmed a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence by closing back above support near 8,000. That defined our risk on the long side and skewed the reward/risk very much in our favor. It's worked well so far and we're now seeing prices accelerate off support and towards our 10,300 target.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Sector Rotation's Next Benefactor - Information Technology?

January 17, 2020

The Large-Cap indices continue to churn near the highs as Mid and Small-Cap stocks play catchup. Sector leadership remains clear, but we're now beginning to see signs that a former leader turned laggards may start heating up again.

Earlier this week we looked Consumer Goods before they broke out and Technology looks to be showing similar signs of buying pressure.

Let's take a look.

Here's the Nifty IT Index attempting to break back above 16,200 resistance as momentum finally breaks back into overbought territory. If prices can break decisively above resistance then this long-term uptrend could accelerate and target 18,775 over the next few quarters.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Nifty PSU Banks Remain Broken

January 14, 2020

In an environment where we want to be buying stocks, we primarily want to focus on areas of relative strength. With that being said, we also want to be aware of those areas showing relative weakness so that we can avoid them on the long side and short them when the environment is more conducive to shorts.

One clear area of weakness remains Nifty PSU Banks, so let's take a closer look at what's going on.

Consumer Goods Sector Sees Rotation

January 13, 2020

The Large-Cap indices continue to churn near the highs as Mid and Small-Cap stocks play catchup. Sector leadership remains clear, but we're now beginning to see signs that a former leader turned laggards may start heating up again.

Let's take a look.

Here's the Nifty Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index attempting to break back above 31,000 resistance as prices reverse from their lows and momentum diverges positively. If prices can break back above that resistance then this long-term uptrend could accelerate and target 39,000 over the course of 2020.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

A Tactical Trade In Natural Gas

January 8, 2020

Typically when looking for trades we're searching weeks and months out, but occasionally the reward/risk in a setup justifies trading the shorter-term timeframe.

Today, that trade is Natural Gas.

Q1 2020 Playbook Preview

January 6, 2020

Every quarter we put out a Quarterly Playbook for our Premium Members, with our three-part Q1 2020 note being published just now.

In this note, we want to outline one of the most informative charts from each of the three parts.

[Premium] Q4 Playbook (Part 3/3)

January 6, 2020

As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.

Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.

Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.

Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.

[Premium] Q4 Playbook (Part 2/3)

January 6, 2020

As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.

Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.

Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.

Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.

[Premium] Q4 Playbook (Part 1/3)

January 6, 2020

As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.

Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.

Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.

Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.

[Chart of The Week] A Symptom Of An Ongoing Problem

December 27, 2019

The BRICKS are breaking out, but India is being left behind due to a lack of breadth. Large-Caps continue to perform, but when they pause there are not enough stocks to pick up the slack...so what we get is a messy, choppy 2-year range in the Nifty 500.

As a result, we've been focusing on the stocks showing relative strength...making money on the long side by sticking with the names that continue to trend, and playing the short side when the reward/risk is ridiculously skewed in our favor.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to close out the year/decade with the same gameplan as charts like the one below are a symptom of the weak breadth problem India's had for two years.

Keep An Eye On Private Banks

December 23, 2019

One of the things that stuck out to me during this weekend's chart review was the Nifty Private Index, particularly on a relative basis.

Let's take a look at the chart and what's happening with it.