There has been a lot of opportunity in Commodities lately, particularly in Precious Metals and Base Metals, after years of nothing.
Today we want to highlight the strength in Natural Gas, a theme we've been pointing to most of this year but that's now accelerating.
Let's take a look at what's happening and how we can take advantage of it.
Here's the chart we were using as our roadmap at the beginning of the year as prices approached long-term support near 115. Additionally, we were seeing momentum stay out of oversold territory, signaling that sellers were unable to stay aggressive and take prices to new lows.
We've been selectively participating in a few Steel stocks over the last few months as we waited for a signal to get more aggressive in the space.
Yesterday we got that signal as the Nifty Metal Index broke out to new recovery highs and reclaimed support on a relative basis.
In this post, we're going to outline what we're seeing in the sector and what we're buying to take advantage of this theme.
First, let's start with Base Metals (read for context), which continue to trend higher along with Precious Metals. In July when we were talking about them, we were staying very selective in the Nifty Metal space because it hadn't yet broken out despite the strength in Commodities.
In September we'll be starting a new Live Monthly Conference Call at the beginning each month to review the most prominent monthly candlesticks charts from across the globe.
For those unfamiliar with our process, we use Monthly Candlesticks to tune out the daily/weekly noise and focus on the long-term trends in the market. It is one of the most invaluable parts of our process, by far.
As a preview of this new conference call format, I've recorded a quick video highlighting some charts that stood out for us in July.
Yesterday we discussed some of the potential headwinds for Crude Oil, Copper, and other risk assets.
After doing my International Chartbook review over the weekend, I wanted to share some of the things we're seeing and what it means for Equities as an asset class.
We've outlined some headwinds for stocks in this week's "Three Charts For The Week Ahead", so this week we're looking for a short setup in a struggling sector.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
I know it's a Technical Analysis no-no to be looking at weekly candlesticks before they're complete, but there's something happening in the Rupee that we need to be paying attention to.
One of our favorite ways of looking at a sector or industry group is by using equally-weighted charts.
A lot of "Home TV" stocks have been on the move, so we're going to take a look at what's happening and determine what's next for the group.
First, let's take a look at our equally-weighted custom index of Den Networks, Hathway Cable, Sun TV Network, TV18Broadcast, and Zee Entertainment. Prices did break down to new all-time lows during the March decline, but quickly reversed and took out the downtrend line from their 2018 highs. Now, prices are testing former support/resistance with momentum diverging negatively, suggesting a near-term pause is likely.
Banks are the most important sector of the market so their performance, or lack thereof, gets our attention.
This week we're seeing some interesting headlines about industry heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
Let's take a look at what's happening.
First, let's start with HDFC Bank, which continues to struggle with the 1,100 level of resistance on the daily and weekly chart. Notice how momentum also failed to reach overbought territory throughout its entire March-Present rally? Not exactly bullish action.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
And here are some of the headlines we're seeing about the stock this week. Sold...to you?
We continue to focus on stocks that are showing relative strength and absolute price momentum. This week we're looking sticking with a sector that continues to work, Pharma.
Last week we retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is our first edition, so let's jump right into it.