Yesterday's post on "Pulling The Weeds" from our portfolios got some great feedback, so thank you for that.
It also prompted a question about whether we should be adding Equity exposure as the indexes go higher or if we should be lightening up and trying to add back on weakness.
This is a very personal question that'll look different for everyone in practice. In this post, I want to provide a framework to use when thinking about this so you can identify what's most appropriate for your portfolio.
Remember, our job as Market Technicians is to ask the right questions and then allow the market to tell us the answer.
Our view remains that this is a new bull market in stocks, so we want to continue using any weakness towards 10,000 in the Nifty 50 to be adding exposure. With that said, just as we would pull the weeds out of our garden periodically to keep it healthy, we want to do the same with our portfolios.
And what better time to review your portfolio than at the end of the quarter?
In this post, we're going to show a few examples of stocks that remain out of favor...and their characteristics, so that you can identify any of the weeds in your portfolio and determine the best course of action for them.
After some brief strength following this post, we're seeing the US Dollar continue to weaken...which raises the question of whether it's losing its leadership position against the world's major currencies.
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Now, let's see where these indicators ended the week.
One of the things that really caught my attention during our Monthly Chart Review for June was that the Nifty Auto Sector is approaching resistance on an absolute basis, as are some of the sector's largest components.
In this post, I want to dig into the sector and identify if there's still opportunity in the sector on the long side.
First, let's take a look at the Nifty Auto Index weekly chart on an absolute basis. Prices briefly broke below support at 5,200 in March and quickly reversed, sparking a rally towards resistance near 7,000 where we sit today.
This is a multi-year level of resistance, so we're likely to see some consolidation after a 57% rally off the March lows. For now, 7,000 is the line in the sand. If prices are above that, then Auto's can see further upside towards 9,300, but below 7,000 then there's too much downside risk and opportunity cost in being aggressively long the sector.
In this post, we're putting aside our broader market thesis that we've outlined (June 28th, June 27th, and June 24th) and focus on a specific sector that may be presenting opportunity on a relative basis.
A few weeks ago we highlighted the Nifty Services Index, but this week we're taking a similar approach and thesis towards the broader Nifty Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index.
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Outside of India, many major indexes like the S&P 500, have yet to recover above their resistance levels we outlined two weeks ago. With that said, prices have yet to collapse either.
Instead, what we're seeing is prices digesting their gains and setting up for their next move...in whatever direction that may be.
Inside of India, we're seeing the major indices experiencing their first real day of selling after a strong run off of the June 12th lows.
In this post, we're going to provide some perspective on the question many are seemingly asking, "was that it for stocks?"
Reliance Industries is the largest component of the Nifty 50 at nearly 12% of the index's weighting, so when it moves, we need to pay attention.
The stock has come a long way since its March lows, so we want to take a look at where it's come from and what its recent break to new all-time highs means for its future.