Copper is ripping to its highest level in almost two years, posting a 15% year-to-date gain:
For perspective, the S&P 500 is up less than 5% since January 1.
Our next profit target of roughly 4.85 is now in focus. A decisive break above this new objective sends copper toward new all-time highs and the psychologically important five-dollar level.
Perhaps the near-term rise in rates makes it difficult to grasp, but the US benchmark yield is actually chopping within a broader corrective phase.
Before we dive into the charts, I want to make two things clear:
One, I am not an Elliottician or an Elliott Wave specialist on any level. And two, if you give five Elliotticians the same chart, you’re likely to get five different wave counts.
Nevertheless, my journey to earning the CMT designation exposed me to the Elliott Theory, and I find it prudent when examining the US 10-year yield.
It’s easy to overlook while gold shines and silver rips. But during the last commodity supercycle, platinum traded at a premium to the famous shiny yellow rock (and still does regarding retail jewelry).
Platinum was a powerhouse!
Check out gold and platinum futures overlaid going back to the 1970s:
Both peaked within a month of each other in the early 1980s and experienced rip-roaring rallies during the 2000s.
Everyone is obsessing over the Fed’s rate cut plans. Meanwhile, interest rates are climbing to their highest level since early December.
Instead of following Fed gossip and what-ifs, focus on what is: Yields continue to creep higher as inflationary assets rip.
Check out our Global Benchmark Rate Composite, an equal-weight basket of Developed Market 10-year yields (Germany, UK, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, and the US):
Our global composite is holding well above the lower bounds of a yearlong range, catching toward the underside of a flat 200-day moving average.
Yields on sovereign debt show no signs of an imminent collapse.
