It's the 2023 inaugural weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

And we're kicking it off with the US Dollar Index $DXY!

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not big into seasonality.

I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price. 

Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances awareness of any given market – which should be a priority for any trader or investor.

I have multiple almanacs on my desk, including the Stock Trader’s Almanac by Jeff Hirsch and Christopher Mistal and the Spectra Markets Trader Handbook and Almanac by Brent Donnelly and Justin Ross.

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have endured quite the year.

Perhaps 2022 marks the worst on record, or at least the past 100 years. Nevertheless, we’ve all witnessed extraordinary selling pressure in what has historically acted as a safe-haven asset. 

Despite the dismal returns and destruction of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the bond market continues to instill valuable lessons in those willing to listen and learn.

Check out these three poignant reminders courtesy of the bond market…

Trends Persist

It’s an oldie but a goodie. And interest rates have refused to let us forget that trends persist.

The chart below highlights the five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury yields finding support at their respective year-to-date trendlines and pivot highs from the spring.

I thought rates might follow the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So long, 2022. It’s been real.

With only a few trading hours left in the year, I’m ready to turn the page. I’m sure plenty of you can relate.

In the spirit of looking ahead to a bright and beautiful 2023, I want to share seven of my favorite commodity charts for January.

No grand thesis, just seven potential setups that have my attention heading into the new year.

1. Sugar

Sugar futures print a potential failed breakout after coiling within a tight range since the summer of 2021: The lack of upside follow-through accompanied by a bearish momentum divergence warrants caution.

We have no business trading sugar from the long side if it chops within its prior range.

But I want to keep a close eye on this one.

Momentum divergences have a way of working themselves out on daily time frames, as I give far more...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you checked out our new Gold Report?

We run through nearly 4o charts, breaking down the key levels and intermarket relationships, suggesting Gold could hit 5,000.

In this update, I’m going to share two of my favorite charts. 

Plus, I’ll reveal one mining stock setting up for a buy signal.

First, Gold outside the US presents a very different picture.

Yes, the USD dominates global trade. And yes, we want to witness a break to fresh all-time highs priced in US dollars. But when we look around the world at other major currencies, Gold has already broken out!

This is what Gold looks like when we remove the US dollar bias:

It’s the same story no matter where we look – from the lower left to the upper right. Uptrends, folks… 

Gold priced in...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a year for currency markets!

The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity versus the US dollar for the first time in twenty years.

But where does that leave the King Dollar heading into Q1 2023 now that it has fallen almost 10% off its September peak and many global currencies have reclaimed key levels?

Let’s turn to the charts for some answers…

First, take a look at the US dollar index $DXY:

The dollar index is reaching a crucial level marked by the 2016 and 2020 highs – a logical spot for it to bounce. Honestly, I’d be surprised if it doesn’t! 

Yet, the DXY seems stuck in the mud. That’s information.

Here’s a look at the daily chart:

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed commodities are breaking out?

No, not crude oil or copper. I’m talking about sugar, live cattle, and soybean meal.

Though these contracts rarely find themselves on the front page, their upside resolutions provide an important commodity-trading roadmap heading into 2023. 

Plus, their relative strength reveals insight into the underlying nature of the current market environment.

Check out commodity subgroup performances anchored from Sept. 26, when  the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked:

I chose to anchor from this date for two reasons: to highlight the trailing three months and to show how a weaker dollar tends to benefit commodity prices.

One might expect the entire commodity...

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

So far this week, the Japanese yen has stolen the show. But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What do you do when the party gets out of hand?

You raise the roof!

That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%. 

Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar. 

But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today, we focus on metals and the differences between correcting though price versus time.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

We all learn how to fall – the sooner, the better.

As adults, we forget this is one of the first skills we learn early in life. For better or worse, my one-year-old reminds me daily.

He’s amazing. 

Yes, I’m one of those proud, doting fathers. But his coordination and acrobatics keep both of us out of the pediatric ER (and me, the doghouse). He pops right up whenever he hits the ground and keeps chasing his older brother.

Pure gold.

Since my mind is always lost in the charts, his agility and doggedness remind me of gold’s resilience during the past two years.

You often hear us refer to markets correcting through price or time. It’s an important concept that can reveal underlying strength. 

The dual-pane chart of copper and gold futures presents both:

Gold corrects through time as copper corrects through price after breaking down earlier this year. 

While gold reminds me of my youngest,...

It's the weekly bond market edition of What the FICC?

Today we're highlighting the breakout in bonds.

Check it out!