From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The NYSE might be closed today, but futures markets are open.

And while the volume remains low during US trading hours, it hasn’t stopped Gold futures from revisiting a critical level.

Gold currently challenges a price level engrained in goldbugs’ minds worldwide…

The prior commodity supercycle peak!

Check out the chart of Gold futures:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs, especially when they're bellwethers!

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As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs. 

Despite what you may have heard from the major cable networks, many stocks aren’t going down. In fact, many fit our definition of "strength."

Out of all the fresh highs coming in, these three bellwethers take the cake…

Freeport-McMoRan

We look at Freeport-McMoRan $FCX as a proxy for Dr. Copper. Both are economic barometers, and both are posting new multi-month highs:

This is a bullish development for global risk assets, including commodities and their related stocks.

As long as FCX trades above 40, our outlook is higher toward 62, with a target of 97 over longer timeframes.  

Newmont Corp.

Here’s the gold mining behemoth, Newmont Corp. $NEM, carving out a decade-long base:

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It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

Credit spreads around the world are sending a clear message: "Relax."

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From the Desk of Ian Culley

If bond markets aren’t stressing, why should we be?

They’re the largest markets in the world. That’s why we constantly monitor credit spreads for signs of structural weakness and elevated risk.

But, as of now, we’re not seeing the slightest hint of impending catastrophe.

Despite the doom-and-gloom headlines popping up in your inbox and financial media talking heads spinning an imminent recession…

Credit spreads around the world are sending a clear message: "Relax."

Check out the overlay chart of option-adjusted high-yield credit spreads:

They’re all contracting to levels from last summer. Even the riskiest CCC-rated spread is reverting lower.

This is the exact opposite of what we would expect if the world was coming to an end and investors were running for the exits.

Instead, market participants are reaching...

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

I have no idea, but the euro will likely answer that question in the coming days.

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’ now! But that doesn’t mean it’ll happen…. 

One thing is certain: The markets don’t care what I think. This includes the US dollar.

But when I look at a chart of the EUR/USD, the largest component of the US Dollar Index $DXY, it’s running into a logical level of resistance.

How the euro reacts to current levels will set the tone for the dollar in the coming weeks and months.

Check out the daily chart of the EUR/USD:

First, let’s break down momentum in the lower pane.

The 14-day RSI has broken out of a bearish momentum regime, printing a bullish overbought reading last month. This indicates momentum has shifted in...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed precious metals printing fresh highs?

Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.

Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!

Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.

These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.

If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating. 

And it just so happens they are…

If gold prices rise, companies that remove gold from the ground and sell it will surely benefit. Simple!

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It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

The major commodity indexes look ready to roll despite sustained strength from precious metals.

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Bloomberg commodity index $BCOM is breaking down, approaching fresh 52-week lows.

Somehow Gold and Copper didn’t get the memo. They must be too busy printing new highs.

But when we review other major commodity indexes (including our own equal-weight index of 33 individual contracts), they look poised to roll over.

Check out the triple pane chart of the Bloomberg, CRB, and our equal-weight commodity indexes:

It’s interesting to note the differences between these indexes. The weighting structures vary, as do their support levels. But the CRB index and our equal-weight commodity index challenge their 2022 lows while the BCOM has undercut its respective lows. 

Will the other indexes follow BCOM lower, completing major tops? Or will the Bloomberg index reverse higher, holding above former support?

I don’t know. No one does. But that’s not the key takeaway from this chart. Instead, this chart tells me I...

It's the weekly bond market edition of What the FICC?

Today we're highlighting potential failed breakouts in European benchmark rates.

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From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Whether you’re looking across the curve or around the world, interest rates continue to rise.

Benchmark rates in Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal hit fresh multi-year highs last week. Interestingly, the US 10-year yield did not. And neither did the two-, 5-, or 30-year yields.

I’m not claiming US yields have put in a lower high. It’s far too early to assume that. A downside resolution below last month’s pivot lows needs to materialize before making that claim.

Nevertheless, the lack of confirmation from US interest rates is intriguing, especially as European yields turn lower this week.

Check out the triple-pane chart of Developed European 10-year yields (Germany, France, and Spain):

All three broke above their respective Oct. highs, finishing 2022 on a high note. But those breakouts were short-lived as yields are sliding lower this week. 

The lackluster moves from European yields suggest...