From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The New York Mercantile Exchange soft commodity contracts have been ripping.

Orange juice futures recently broke out of a decade-long base, coffee is up almost 20% in a month, and cocoa hit fresh 52-week highs yesterday.

Yet, of all the softs, I like sugar the most.

In fact, sugar held the No. 1 spot as my favorite chart heading into 2023. And it broke out last month!

I missed that move -- not for lack of initiative, more like access issues.

If you missed it, too, have no fear: Sugar is offering us another opportunity to get long.…

Check out the weekly chart:

It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

Commodity-related stocks remain hot despite a narrative of easing inflation.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

I prefer to focus on price when analyzing markets. 

It’s what pays us at the end of the day. And it bakes in all the news and lagging economic data I tend to ignore.

A few weeks ago, I urged investors to track trends, not inflation.

Honestly, I was only half serious. I pay attention to the Fed and CPI data – mainly to stay aware of the increased volatility accompanying important release dates. 

But price is king. And when I look at my charts, the narrative of easing inflation appears suspect...

Check out the overlay chart of the Metals and Mining ETF $XME and the TIPs vs. US Treasuries ratio $TIP / $IEF:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision across the currency markets, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s messy out there.

The CPI data came in a little warmer than expected today. And currency markets aren’t quite sure what to make of it.

Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.

Today, I’ll outline another vehicle to short a potential falling dollar – the Swiss franc.

I prepared to get long the USD/CHF pair last October. But the trade never materialized. Instead, it caught lower as the USD downtrend picked up steam in early November.

Fast-forward a few months, and I’m ready to short the USD/CHF pair.

Before we break down the setup, let’s zoom out:

It's the weekly Gold Rush!

This week Strazza and I dig into the COT profile for Gold and Silver, revealing the sentiment behind the smart money.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What will ignite a precious metal rally to new all-time highs?

We often discuss the dollar and real yields as critical catalysts for a sustained uptrend for gold and silver. It’s simple: These shiny rocks will struggle if the dollar and rates continue to rise. 

But there’s more.

I want to share another crucial piece of the puzzle – commercial positioning.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

I want to share with you a trade idea I wouldn’t have considered a year ago...

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I want to share with you a trade idea I wouldn’t have considered a year ago.

I balked at first. This trade’s simply not in my wheelhouse. But I’ve learned so much here at All Star Charts over the past three years.

And "to be open-minded" has been one of the most impactful lessons. 

Now, this setup has my full attention. Risk is well-defined, and the upside potential is heavily skewed in our favor.

I can see the spin on the pitch.

I’m talking about natural gas…

Before I lay out the levels, let’s step back and look at the big picture.

Natural gas stocks, represented by the Natural Gas ETF $FCG, haven't experienced the same extreme sell-off as natural gas futures $NGF:

It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

I thought it was odd bonds didn't react to last week's rate hike. Regardless, the lack of volatility represents a positive development for risk assets, especially stocks.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

Markets don’t always trend higher or lower. In fact, traders often deal with churn – which sometimes is nothing more than a range-bound mess.

"Sideways" is a trend that's all too easy to forget after last year’s historic volatility. Even bonds became risk assets in 2022!

I found it odd when bonds failed to react to last week’s rate hike along with other long-duration assets.

But the lack of bond market volatility might be exactly what risk assets, especially stocks, need right now.

Check out the chart of the US 10-year yield:

The US benchmark rate continues to hold above 3.40%. This has been our line in the sand for months, coinciding with the June pivot highs from last year.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Yesterday, the US dollar index $DXY booked its largest three-day gain since it peaked in late September. So will today's bounce turn into tomorrow's rally?

I don't know. But you want to monitor these two levels for insight.

Check it out!