From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold mining stocks are the play.

Why?

Because they’re working!

In a market overrun with whipsaws and failed moves, our gold mining trades are holding their breakouts and reaching our initial targets. Not many market areas can make that claim.

And when you consider they’re outperforming the S&P 500 and the physical metals, it’s hard not to like these names.

Especially as gold and silver run into logical levels of resistance…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

There’s no doubt about it: Fundamentals drive markets over longer time frames.

It’s a common misconception that technical analysts don’t believe in fundamental analysis. 

That’s not true.

Many of us simply chose to follow price for a multitude of reasons. Price always made sense to me, especially since it pays at the end of the day.

Whether you use fundamentals or technicals to inform your investment decisions comes down to philosophy. 

Remember, we’re all solving the same puzzle – just from different perspectives…

Check out the dual-pane chart below of the CRB Index and the overall CPI percentage change from a year earlier:

I was shocked at how closely these charts move in tandem. They look almost identical! It makes sense considering inflationary assets such as commodities rise along with inflation.

You can choose to focus on the CPI report or...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Despite another CPI report and the latest job numbers reflecting easing inflationary pressure, markets are a mess!

Indecision and uncertainty are running high. Investors simply aren't able to get a read on the economy and the Fed's next step. 

I don’t blame them.

If you’re focusing on the Fed comments du jour or lagging economic data that will likely be revised in the future, confusion and pain are the higher probability outcomes.

That’s why we study price.

Let’s check in on the charts to clear things up…

Here’s the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate:

This chart shows the difference between the 10-year nominal bond yield and its corresponding TIPS Treasury yield, gauging inflation expectations (or the real return on a 10-year Treasury bond).

While the chart doesn’t reveal direct buying and selling pressure, both yields are based on the bond market. And, as is the case for global risk assets,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Recessionary fears run high.

Everyone is talking about an imminent economic downturn and the next stock market crash.

You hear it on the news and in the streets – talk of the banking crisis, the Fed, inflation, and China pervades the narrative. Even my doctor assured me the world is headed for dark times during a routine appointment earlier this week.

Bearish sentiment is obviously alive and well. 

But, as a chartist, I prefer to visualize these rumblings...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Trendless price action remains the way right now for currency markets.

Yes, some of our bearish dollar trades have triggered and are trending. But most have not. 

It doesn’t mean they won’t, of course. But it would be irresponsible not to consider potential outcomes that conflict with my bearish USD thesis…

If the dollar rips, what USD dollar pair would I use to express a bullish outlook?

The answer: the South African rand.

Check out the weekly chart of the USD/ZAR pair:

The dollar has been in a strong uptrend versus the rand for more than a decade. It’s been one base breakout after another, leading to the USD/ZAR challenging its all-time highs last month. 

Those former highs coincide with a key extension level. This a logical level to witness price digest its recent rally. And it has! 

Here’s a potential six-...

We have Phillip Streible on the show today.

I'm a big fan of Phil's work. He's the Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures and a market veteran with more than 20 years of experience trading futures and forex.

Today, Phil shares with us his technical perspective on precious metals and discusses key fundamental drivers at play right now.

Check it out:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The pieces of the puzzle are falling into place. 

Gold priced in USD has finally joined other global currencies, closing last week at an all-time high. Silver, the high-beta play, is outperforming its more reserved cousin (gold). And gold mining stocks are breaking out.

Many of our trade ideas over the past few weeks are working. I believe this trend has just begun and could last for months – or even quarters.

Especially when I consider this next chart…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals and crude oil stole the show this week.

Crude oil reclaimed its prior-cycle peak, gapping higher on the Sunday open, while gold and silver posted fresh highs. 

I’ll have more on those shiny metals Monday in the weekly Gold Rush report.

Today, I want to bring your attention to a commodity that often escapes the headlines – palladium – and why I think a significant bottom could be in place for this diverse metal.

I say “diverse” because palladium has multiple use-cases, from catalytic converters to fine jewelry.

Around ASC we jokingly refer to palladium as “the Notre Dame of precious metals” because it’s in its own conference. 

Categorizations aside, here are three reasons I believe palladium is a strong buy…

• Commercial Positioning

Commercial hedges hold their largest net-long position in history!

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasury futures are breaking out.

The 30-, 10-, and 5-year contracts are trading above our risk levels. And the bond ETFs we covered a couple of weeks ago are also flashing buy signals.

The bond market is sending a well-advertised message to all investors…

It’s time to buy bonds.

Let's review one of the most liquid treasury ETFs, $TLT.

Zooming out on the weekly chart of the Treasury bond ETF TLT… 

We have a potential failed breakdown below the former 2014 lows, followed by a tight, multi-month consolidation.

A clear break above 110 and the former 2018 lows turns our view higher toward 135. 

On the other hand, a resolution below 100 carries downside risks back to the 2011 lows at approximately 88.

Based on the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is dropping – and our bearish USD trade ideas are beginning to trigger.

While I tend to stick to major developed-market (DM) currencies for placing trades, I still monitor the less liquid forex pairs for information. 

I want to see DM currency strength spill over into emerging-market (EM) currencies, confirming the broadening US dollar weakness. 

As always, I strive to break it down to one level, one chart, whenever possible. 

This next chart does the job…

Here’s the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund ETF $CEW:

CEW is carving out a possible reversal pattern below a polarity zone, coinciding with a series of key pivot highs and lows from 2021 and 2022. 

Notice momentum has improved as price churns below resistance. This supports a potential upside resolution.

My view...

Gold finished the month within ten dollars of a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis.

It's an impressive feat by any standards, but even more so considering March is the weakest month of the year from a seasonal perspective.

With Gold futures bucking seasonal weakness and Silver futures and mining stocks bid, investors are sending a clear message to gold bugs everywhere...

It's time to party!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I thought March was supposed to be a seasonally weak period for gold.

I guess I was wrong.

Instead of rolling over, gold almost posted double-digit returns last month, while the higher beta plays (silver futures and mining stocks) soared.

As you might expect, many of the bullish trade ideas I laid out last month are working.

And, today, I have two new setups for you to check out…