From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
King Dollar is reasserting its reign at the expense of major global currencies and risk assets.
What started as a potential failed breakout last month is proving no more than a hard retest, as the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh 20-year highs yesterday.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The Japanese yen continues to slide.
In early April, we highlighted the multi-year base in the USD/JPY cross. We were anticipating a significant breakout based on the broad weakness in the yen.
Even gold, one of the worst performing assets, looked strong denominated in yen.
Not long after the post, we got the breakout we expected. And, two months later, the USD/JPY is kicking off its next leg higher, printing fresh 20-year highs.
Let's take it a step further and outline some trade setups in other currencies denominated in yen.
Remember, everything and anything seems to work priced in yen these days.
First, a quick revisit of the USD/JPY chart we shared in April. Here’s the updated version:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is on the ropes as global currencies bounce back.
After failing to hold its breakout earlier in the month, the USD looks vulnerable against a growing number of currencies.
The pound and euro are catching higher. The Swiss franc is rebounding off its recent lows. And the commodity-centric Australian and Canadian dollars remain resilient.
We can add the Mexican peso to this list, as the USD/MXN cross broke down to fresh 52-week lows yesterday. This breakdown supports the near-term bearish argument for the dollar.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is front and center as risk assets hang in the balance.
Earlier in the month, we placed the Australian and Canadian dollars on breakdown alert as they completed major topping patterns.
US dollar strength was expanding at the time, and the AUD and CAD were the last dominos to fall.
Or so it seemed.
What started as strong downside resolutions for these top commodity currencies quickly turned into potential failed breakdowns.
Now that the most resilient currencies are snapping back against King Dollar, it's compromising the broad US dollar rally and could usher in a more favorable environment for risk assets.
Let’s discuss what it means for stocks and commodities if these failed breakdowns resolve higher.
Here’s a chart highlighting the recent action in the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar futures:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Copper is challenging the lower bounds of its range.
The AUD/JPY is attempting to reclaim former support.
And the S&P 500 is digging in at the AVWAP from its COVID lows.
These are some of the most important charts and levels in the market right now.
But there’s one chart that tops them all…
In our view, the US Dollar Index $DXY is the key to this market.
It’s currently struggling to resolve higher from a multi-year base after reaching its highest level since 2002.
The breakout could stick and lead to a sustained uptrend. Or, it might fail. Either way, the outcome will have wide-ranging impacts on risk assets.
If the breakout from this multi-year double bottom is a valid one and the dollar continues to trend higher, we’ll continue to see downside pressure for the majority of risk assets.
Two of the top commodity currencies – the Australian and Canadian dollars – are undercutting the lower bounds of their current ranges and making fresh 52-week lows.
These breakdowns mean the path of least resistance is now lower. If these are valid resolutions, we’re looking at increased headwinds for risk assets.
Let’s look at a couple charts of the AUD and the CAD, highlight the levels we’re watching, and discuss what continued weakness in these major currencies means for stocks and commodities.
First up is the Australian dollar-US dollar cross:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
While most uptrends have come under pressure in 2022, the US dollar has remained as strong as any.
This dollar strength, particularly at the index level, is nothing new. We've been discussing it.
It's been taking place all year, driven by the major pairs such as the euro, the yen, and the pound.
However, something new is the burgeoning strength beneath the surface, even outside of the big developed market currencies. We've been seeing dollar internals improve drastically in recent weeks.
And now we're seeing momentum accelerate for the US Dollar Index $DXY. Today, DXY is on track for its largest single-day gain since the pandemic crash more than two years ago.
All of the evidence suggests this dollar strength is the real deal.
Let's talk about what it means and how we want to position for it.
Here's the US Dollar Index ripping to its highest level in almost 20 years:
While the dollar pressed to new highs against the yen, the pound, and the euro, it struggled to gain ground against commodity-centric and emerging market currencies.
The lack of broad strength had us questioning the validity of the recent rally in the US Dollar Index $DXY.
That’s changed recently.
Today, the dollar index is catching to new highs against a backdrop of broadening strength, not weakness. Now that we’re seeing dollar internals flip and start to confirm these new highs from the index, this is not a trend we want to fight.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY resumes its relentless march higher.
But the full story surrounding the dollar’s dominance is a bit more complicated.
Lately, we’ve been pounding the table about the narrow scope of the DXY, as 83% of its weightings come from just three currencies – the yen, the pound, and the euro.
All three continue to lose ground versus the dollar, and this is exactly what's driving the rally at the index level.
While this remains the case, we’re starting to see USD strength expand beyond the major components of the DXY. We're also seeing some nice long-term patterns materialize that favor the US dollar.
A great example is the rounding bottom in the US dollar-Korean won cross – USD/KRW.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The turmoil in equity markets has stolen all the attention since last year. But stocks aren't the only asset class that's a mess. We're getting the same kind of mixed signals and sloppy price action from forex markets.
While stocks remain under pressure, currencies have been throwing head fakes and dishing out whipsaws all year long. The AUD/USD broke to fresh nine-month highs just last week only to reverse 200 pips by Friday’s close.
We're seeing this type of action from currencies all over the world. It’s hard to trust a breakout these days. As frustrating as these failed moves may be, there are some clean chart patterns and favorable setups shaping up right now.
One area where the trend is very clear is the Japanese yen. Just about anything priced in Yen has been rallying recently as the currency continues to collapse.
Today, we’re going to highlight the massive base in the USD/JPY.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
King dollar is sitting perched upon its throne. But the floor beneath it is beginning to crumble.
The rally in the US dollar index $DXY isn’t as strong as today's fresh highs would suggest. In fact, when we dig beneath the surface, the dollar is only trending higher against a few currencies over shorter timeframes, while underperforming the vast majority.
Conveniently, the handful of currencies the USD continues to best are the most heavily weighted components of the US dollar index.
This lack of internal strength can be seen pretty much anywhere outside of the chart of DXY itself. Whether we're looking at our USD trend summary table, our custom USD advance-decline line, or the individual crosses themselves, it all suggests the current trend in the dollar lacks support.
Let’s take a look.
Our USD trend summary table illustrates both the broad weakness as well as those critical areas of strength that are driving the current uptrend in the DXY:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Rates continue to move higher around the world as central banks do their best to combat inflation.
As investors, our best course of action is to position ourselves in those areas that benefit most from rising rates.
Commodities and cyclical stocks immediately come to mind. But there are also specific currencies that tend to excel in rising rate environments.
Today, we'll discuss a handful of emerging-market currencies with heavy commodity exposure.
We’ve been waiting on these currencies to catch higher and confirm the price action in commodities since last year… and it looks like it’s finally happening.
Let’s dive in.
First up is an overlay chart of the US 10-year yield and our equal-weight basket of EM commodity currencies:
