From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates, inflation expectations, and commodities are all on the rise. 

But as these pieces of the intermarket puzzle fall into place, it’s hard to make sense of the strength in the US Dollar Index $DXY. That’s also been on the rise recently.

Even other areas of the currency market don’t quite fit with the action we see in the USD. We pointed out the absence of risk-off behavior in a post last week where we highlighted the broad weakness in the yen as well as AUD/JPY making new multi-month highs.

So what’s going on with the US Dollar Index?

Let’s look under the hood at some individual USD pairs and their trends across multiple timeframes to see what the weight of the evidence is currently suggesting.

First, let’s look at the short-, intermediate-, and long-term trends in some of the main US dollar crosses:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

All eyes have been on the US dollar as it presses to new 52-week highs.

But its recent rally hasn’t been accompanied by the usual risk-off behavior we’d expect. Actually, it’s been quite the opposite.

Bonds have been rolling over, commodities and cyclical stocks continue to march higher, and the yen can’t catch a bid.

To us, the evidence suggests the USD is momentarily decoupling from its classic intermarket relationships as it grinds higher in the face of all this.

If the US dollar is out of sync with the action in other asset classes, where can we look within the currencies market for a clear perspective of investors’ attitudes toward risk?

That’s right... the yen!

Let’s look at a couple of charts highlighting the Japanese yen’s weakness and discuss what it means for the current market environment.

First up is the classic risk-appetite barometer, the AUD/JPY cross:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US dollar marches to the beat of its own drum.

Interest rates are rising across the curve, sparking strength out of economically sensitive areas within stocks and commodities.

Crude oil and the energy-heavy CRB Index are breaking to new six-year highs and the energy sector SPDR is testing a crucial area of former support turned resistance -- all while the US Dollar Index is catching a bid. 

It’s not every day we see the dollar and commodities rally in tandem.

This environment suggests the dollar should be rolling over or chopping sideways at best. Yet it continues to show strength!

When markets don’t do "what they should,” that’s valuable information. And in this case, it raises some important questions.

How often does the historically inverse correlation between the dollar and commodities decouple? 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US 10-year yield has made a decisive move back above 1.40% in recent sessions.

We’ve been pounding the table about this critical level for months now--and for a good reason. It’s a vital component of the global growth narrative and rotation into cyclicals.

And most investors probably aren’t prepared for it!

Yesterday, JC and Steve discussed areas that demand attention in a rising rate environment and how we should position ourselves. You can check it out here.

Think cyclical and value stocks. And don’t forget economically sensitive commodities like energy and base metals.

But what about currency markets?

For starters, most currencies versus the US dollar should be beneficiaries of rising rates. This is particularly true for commodity-centric currencies like the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, and the South African rand.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

In recent weeks, the market has taken a risk-off tone as dollar-denominated risk assets have come under increasing pressure. 

Major US stock indexes have pulled back, and procyclical commodities such as crude oil and copper continue to chop around beneath overhead supply. 

Interestingly, we haven’t seen much of a bid in defensive assets through the recent bout of downside volatility. US treasuries have been relatively quiet, and the dollar remains below its August highs. Meanwhile, bond-proxy sectors like Utilities and Staples continue to make new relative lows. 

None of this suggests the kind of defensive positioning that would be typical in an environment where risk assets are getting hit. 

But what about one of the most significant safe-haven assets of all... the Yen?

Let’s take a look at how the Japanese Yen is setting up against other major currencies right now and what it could mean for the market at large.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar has been trapped in a sideways trading range for the trailing 12 months now. The primary trend is lower, and we continue to see near-term weakness from the DXY Index as well as most USD crosses.

Commodity-centric currencies have been some of the best performers versus the Dollar since early last year, although most of them have been correcting since Q1 or Q2, giving back a good deal of their earlier gains.

So, will we see a resurgence back to those risk-on pairs, or will they keep sliding lower against the Dollar?

Today, we’re going to focus specifically on the currencies of some of the largest oil-producing countries in the world.

This should give us information not just about currency markets, but also commodities and risk assets in general. 

Let’s talk about it.

An easy way to aggregate and measure their performance as a group is by analyzing our Petrocurrency Index. It includes currencies like the Canadian Dollar $CAD, the Russian Ruble $RUB, and the Brazilian Real $BRL, among others.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

In last week’s Currency Report, we highlighted the NZD/USD cross as a means to express our bearish US dollar thesis.

The setup was too good to resist taking a swing at following the recently failed breakdown. And so far, we’ve been rewarded for it. That’s information.

But it’s not the only cross that continues to trend well against the US Dollar. We see it all over, and it’s only reinforcing our bearish thesis.

As such, we want to look for more opportunities to take advantage of this developing theme.

In this week’s post, we’re going to do just that.

Let’s drill into our forex universe now and identify some of our favorite risk/reward setups we want to bet on to capture profits from a weakening US dollar. 

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Two months ago, we laid out plans to position ourselves for a push higher in the USD.

Of the four trade setups we identified--EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD--the Aussie was the only one that worked. 

The fact that many of those trades failed or, more specifically, were never even triggered at all, is information!

Fast forward to today and we're looking at a failed breakout in the US Dollar Index that's been confirmed by strong downside follow-through since last week. Now, it’s time to flip the book long on some of these trades to express our thesis of further USD weakness, at least over the near term.

One trade setup that stands out due to its asymmetric risk-reward profile at current levels is the NZD/USD.

Let’s take a look at the Kiwi...

Here’s the daily chart of the NZD/USD cross:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The market has been a choppy mess for months. 

Unless you’ve been stuck under a rock or at the beach all summer, this is old news. And we’ve admittedly been a bit obnoxious when it comes to rehashing this theme. But usually when we find ourselves harping on something, it's because it's a big deal.

Our own behavior can be fantastic information, and it's become a part of our process to pay special attention whenever we begin to repeat ourselves a lot.

This week is no different, as the US Dollar Index $DXY provides another example of the market’s sloppy state of affairs.

Just when we thought we might finally have some decisive price action in the Dollar, Friday’s attempted breakout followed by Monday’s weakness is casting some serious doubts.

Was last week’s breakout above the March pivot highs valid?

Or was it just another failed move to add to the market’s growing list of whipsaws and fake-outs?

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been our main focus as it nears the upper boundary of its recent range.

Where the USD heads next will have wide-ranging implications across asset classes by either providing a tailwind for risk assets or a headwind in the case it resolves higher from its year-to-date range.

But, as the market continues to chop sideways, we want to direct our attention to one of the most important risk gauges in the currency market.

That’s the Aussie-Yen.

In this week’s post, let’s check in on the AUD/JPY to see what information we can glean regarding risk appetite and what it could mean for other markets.

Let’s dive in.

First, we have a daily chart of the AUD/JPY:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been a good reminder that price doesn’t always move in a straight line. 

Paul Tudor Jones has been quoted saying “markets only trend about 15% of the time.” The textbooks will tell you it’s somewhere between 20% and 30%. But it all comes down to how you’re measuring it.

We think it’s fair to say most markets trend about 25% of the time on a structural basis.

And the present year two market conditions have been a great illustration of what they look like the other 75% of the time… range-bound... sideways... a hot mess.

Speaking of which, last week, we pointed out that Dollar strength had stalled and that things were beginning to look messy on shorter time frames. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Was that it for the recent bounce in the US dollar?

A little more than a month ago, we began to see broad-based strength in USD emerge on both a short and intermediate-term basis. 

Since then, it’s been the central theme in currency markets. 

But we're starting to see signs that this near-term US dollar dominance could be fading as bulls have had ample opportunity to push the USD higher in recent months but have made little progress. 

The lack of follow-through can be seen in our long USD trade ideas from late June, as most are not working. We recently saw many crosses reach our risk level, but price rebounded instead of triggering an entry. The EUR/USD is a great example of this.