Other major global currencies are regaining lost ground following a year dominated by dollar strength. It shows in the US Dollar Index $DXY as it continues to slide back within its prior multi-year range.
Lower lows for the DXY will not instill confidence in dollar bulls. Meanwhile, savvy investors should take its performance as a signal to buy other currencies.
Here are two of my favorite setups from the forex markets…
Check out the GBP/USD pair on the verge of completing a multi-month reversal formation:
It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?
The US dollar index $DXY registered a "death cross" last week, confirming a bearish trend reversal.
But it's not the confirmation of the dollar downtrend that has my attention. It's what the signal suggests for stocks in the coming months and quarters.
Perhaps you’ve noticed that I don’t use moving averages.
For starters, I don’t like the way they look.
They muddy the pristine waters of price. And if I can't pick up on the underlying trend by looking at price action, then god help me.
Regardless, I do my best to stay open-minded. Everyone has their own process. Mine works for me, but that doesn’t make it superior by any stretch.
So, when Grant @GrantHawkridge dropped a US Dollar Index $DXY moving average crossover study in our analyst Slack chat last weekend, I couldn’t resist.
It wasn’t because it highlighted the “death cross” (when a 50-day moving average falls below a longer-term 200-day average), which always stirs a great deal of excitement.
Nor was it what his study suggests for the dollar in the coming weeks and quarters.
Rather, it’s what it implies for US stocks.
Check out the chart of the DXY with a 50-day (blue line) and a 200-day simple moving average (red line):
The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity versus the US dollar for the first time in twenty years.
But where does that leave the King Dollar heading into Q1 2023 now that it has fallen almost 10% off its September peak and many global currencies have reclaimed key levels?
That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%.
Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar.
But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?
The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.
Unfortunately, some of our initial attempts to capitalize on dollar weakness have fallen flat.
We’re not surprised – especially since market conditions remain challenging. But that won’t deter us from moving forward and finding the best trade setups.
As always, a viable trade comes down to two critical components: a well-defined risk level and a risk/reward profile heavily skewed in our favor.
And, of course, you know how much we like relative strength.
That brings us to a vehicle that challenges the definition of "currency."
