Is this it?

Are the bears trapped, and now we rally on higher?

As we've said for those with shorter-term time horizons, there's nothing wrong with taking a swing if Bitcoin's above these lows.

The bears in the derivs are growing too, with funding rates across all exchanges falling back into the negative territory despite Bitcoin's recovery into the day.

Have you ever held a beach ball underwater and pressed down?

You can feel the pressure on your arms - the beachball is trying everything to float back up.

So what happens when you let go? It jumps into the air!

Once that pressure holding it down eases, it has nowhere to go but up.

The market is the exact same.

When everything's selling indiscriminately, we want to look for the sectors, stocks, or in this case, cryptocurrencies that are bucking the trend and pushing up against your arms.

So what's going to happen when that selling, that force holding the beach ball gives up?

It's gonna shoot higher!

That stock or cryptocurrency closing the day higher in the face of broad distribution is likely to be the next leader when that force holding everything down subsides.

We saw this take place with Solana in August, and we know how that turned out...

Now that the market finds itself beaten and bruised over the last few weeks, we need to ask the same question - where's the relative strength?

There are no called strikes on Wall Street.

In other words, we’re not penalized for not swinging, like you are in baseball. We have the ability to be patient, to a certain extent at least, depending on your mandate. But most of us don’t have mandates! Even one of the best hitters of all time struggled when he swung at bad pitches.

This is my favorite reminder that in trading & investing, we want to wait for OUR perfect pitch, and then swing, vs just swinging at anything.

Here's a clip from our Charting School, walking through this exact idea.

https://youtu.be/10CARG4h7n4

We've brought this up today as a good reminder in the face of all this volatile action taking place in the crypto complex over the last few days.

Here's what we outlined in yesterday's crypto note:

The bottom line is that if Bitcoin’s below 46,000-47,000, things are likely to remain messy over more meaningful timeframes.

That's the smell of risk-off...

47,000 was the level, and Bitcoin did not hold it.

Here's what we laid out last week:

For those with a shorter timeframe, the bias is higher above 47,500 toward the former crash highs of 53,000:

Otherwise, if this breakout fails to hold, expect more messy action in the coming days.

And fail it did...

As the old saying suggests, from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction:

This 46,000-47,000 level wasn't just an important inflection point in the near-term, but it also coincided with Bitcoin's last level of defense before crashing in May.

If we're below this zone of overhead supply, the bias is sideways to lower.

This is the video recording of our September 17, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Crypto as an asset class can be very intimidating.

There's so much jargon and nomenclature thrown around, and the drivers of these tokens are very different from traditional markets.

And it's certainly not getting any simpler. There's a flourishing list of smart contract platforms, defi protocols, and other projects, all with their own objectives, purpose, and communities.

Whether you're a developer or a humble trader looking to lend and borrow in the world of defi, the market is becoming so oversaturated with all these protocols that it becomes downright daunting to even touch it.

But I think we can all take solace in the fact that no one is a complete expert in this stuff.

This isn't commodities or stocks where a group of oldtimers have decades of experience dealing with these markets. Crypto has been around for less than a decade, and in the case of the biggest names in the asset class today, less than a few years.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza 

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

In our RPP Report from the end of August, we discussed how the weakest areas were registering failed breakdowns and digging in at support.

In Monday's post, we mentioned that this would be very much a "wait and see" week as we watched Bitcoin's near-term consolidation play out.

And here's what we outlined in yesterday's note:

We’re not really expecting much more than tumbleweeds and a few winners here and there while Bitcoin’s stuck below the upper-end of this range near 47,500.

But if we see a breakout above that level, we’ll be deploying some more cash into new long positions.

It looks like we could be getting a resolution this morning, with Bitcoin trading back into the 47,000's.

For those with a shorter timeframe, the bias is higher above 47,500 toward the former crash highs of 53,000:

In yesterday's note, we outlined that this looks very much like a "wait and see" week, with Bitcoin still in this messy sideways range.

44,000 is a big level of interest that the market respected, with prices trading back above our long-term macro risk level of 46,000 this morning.

But we're not really expecting much more than tumbleweeds and a few winners here and there while Bitcoin's stuck below the upper-end of this range near 47,500.

But if we see a breakout above that level, we'll be deploying some more cash into new long positions.

We're seeing this play out with the number of new monthly highs dwindling recently:

In traditional markets, we've been making the case that they've been a big fat mess.

So with all things considered, the alpha taking place within crypto has been catching our attention. But even this asset class has succumbed to the choppy action experienced elsewhere.

The bottom line is that if Bitcoin's below 46,000, the probability of success in new long positions reduces.

Looking more tactically, 44,000 is another critical inflection point. Not only does this conjuncture represent the 38.2% retracement from the recent thrust higher, but also the AVWAPs from all-time highs and July lows, as well as the 50-day moving average.

If we hold above 44k, things are likely not completely falling apart, and though the near-term trend is still choppy, there will still continue to be winners under the surface.

If there has been any alpha anywhere in this market, it's been in Crypto.

We don't care where the trends are. We just want to participate in them. They can be in Stocks, Energy, Metals, Euro, Crypto, doesn't matter.

I stopped caring a long time ago.

Here's Cardano reminding us what polarity is all about:

This is the video recording of our September 10, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.